Dada(DADA) 交银国际证券·2024-11-15 01:09Investment Rating - The investment rating for Dada Group (DADA US) is Neutral, with a target price adjusted to 1.57 [4][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Dada Group is experiencing short-term impacts from business adjustments, but the performance in JD's ecosystem is strong, laying a foundation for long-term growth [3][4]. - For Q3 2024, Dada Group reported revenues of 2.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 7%, which was better than market expectations. Dada Express saw a revenue increase of 39% due to higher delivery volumes from chain brands, while JD's same-day delivery revenue fell by 40% due to a decline in advertising revenue and reduced fulfillment service income [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Q3 2024 Performance - Total revenue was 2.4 billion RMB, down 7% year-on-year, exceeding expectations by 3% [1]. - Dada Express revenue increased by 39% year-on-year, driven by increased delivery volumes from chain brands [2]. - JD's same-day delivery revenue decreased by 40%, attributed to a drop in advertising revenue and lower fulfillment service income [1][2]. Operational Highlights - JD's same-day delivery saw a 100%+ year-on-year increase in average monthly active users and order volume, with peak daily orders during the Double Eleven shopping festival [2]. - Dada Express completed orders and gross revenue increased by 36% and 33% year-on-year, respectively, due to improved pricing competitiveness and operational efficiency [2]. Outlook and Valuation - The report anticipates that adjustments in JD's same-day delivery business will continue until 2025, with uncertainties regarding revenue from marketing monetization impacting forecasts [3]. - The revenue forecast for 2025-2026 has been adjusted downwards primarily due to uncertainties in advertising monetization, leading to an expected loss of 430 million RMB in 2025 and 245 million RMB in 2026 [3][11].