通信行业周报：重视长期宏观因素，聚焦两大子领域投资

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the communication industry [3][6]. Core Insights - The macro environment indicates long-term benefits for the communication industry, with potential short-term impacts from increased tariffs on Chinese goods proposed by the returning Trump administration [4][14]. - A significant portion of communication companies have high foreign revenue exposure, with 41.76% of surveyed companies having over 25% of their revenue from overseas [4][14]. - The report suggests focusing on two key sub-sectors: optical communication and system equipment manufacturers, highlighting their performance and future growth potential [5][15]. Market Performance - In the past week (November 4-10, 2024), the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index increased by 5.51% and 6.75%, respectively, while the CITIC Communication Index rose by 5.83%, ranking 22nd among 30 primary industries [10][11]. - The communication sector experienced a broad upward trend, although specific sub-sectors like communication engineering services and value-added services saw declines of 8.74% and 8.40%, respectively [10][11]. Sub-sector Analysis 1. Optical Communication - In Q3 2024, the average revenue and net profit growth for the optical communication sub-sector was 83.44% and 211.35%, respectively, indicating strong growth momentum [5][15]. - The report anticipates a dual development of CPO (Chip-on-Board) and traditional pluggable solutions, with traditional methods remaining relevant due to their thermal sensitivity and the need for industry-wide collaboration for CPO advancement [5][15]. 2. System Equipment Manufacturers - The average revenue and net profit growth for system equipment manufacturers in Q3 2024 was -1.86% and 1.98%, primarily due to a slowdown in 5G construction [5][15]. - The report emphasizes that the advancement of 6G technology will be crucial for the growth of equipment manufacturers, with the first commercial standards expected around 2030 [5][15]. Key Companies to Watch - For optical communication: Focus on companies like LightSpeed Technology, Tai Chen Guang, and Yuan Jie Technology [5][15]. - For system equipment: Key players include FiberHome Technologies, ZTE Corporation, and StarNet [5][15]. Industry News - The report highlights significant developments in the cloud services market, with a 13.4% year-on-year growth in China's dedicated cloud services market in the first half of 2024, led by the three major telecom operators [20][21]. - Global smartphone shipments increased by 2% in Q3 2024, with revenue and average selling prices reaching historical highs [22].