10月美国通胀数据点评：“特朗普交易”或进一步分化

Inflation Data Overview - October CPI increased by 2.6% year-on-year, while core CPI remained at 3.3%, aligning with market expectations[1] - October CPI rebounded by 0.2 percentage points from September, marking the first increase since April of this year[1] Key Contributors to Inflation - Energy prices were the primary driver of the October inflation increase, with energy CPI showing a year-on-year decline of 4.8%[1] - Food CPI rose by 2.1%, while core CPI remained unchanged at 3.3% compared to the previous month[1] Economic Implications - The rebound in October inflation data suggests that the "re-inflation" narrative is still valid, despite previous downward trends in core inflation[1] - Housing inflation increased to 4.9%, contributing positively to core CPI, indicating potential upward pressure on inflation if real estate prices rise post-rate cuts[1] Market Reactions - Following the election, market dynamics shifted from a singular focus on the "Trump trade" to a combination of "Trump trade," strong economic fundamentals, and adjustments in interest rate expectations[1] - The strong performance of the U.S. economy and the risk of re-inflation may lead to a divergence in asset pricing, particularly affecting gold prices negatively due to rising economic growth expectations[1] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected economic growth, policy changes, and delays in data updates, which could impact inflation forecasts and market stability[1]