10月社融数据点评：“金融底”已现，宽货币预期升温

Monetary Policy Insights - The broad money supply (M2) increased by 7.50% year-on-year in October, up by 0.7 percentage points from the previous value[2] - The narrow money supply (M1) decreased by 6.10% year-on-year, but the growth rate improved by 1.3 percentage points[2] - The total social financing stock grew by 7.8% year-on-year, with a cumulative increase of 27.06 trillion yuan in the first ten months of 2024, which is 4.13 trillion yuan less than the same period last year[2] Financing Demand and Trends - Social financing growth rate in October was 7.80%, slightly down by 0.2 percentage points from the previous value[7] - New corporate bond financing in October decreased by 163 million yuan, while non-standard financing dropped by 1.443 trillion yuan year-on-year[7] - Resident loans increased by 160 billion yuan in October, which is 194.6 billion yuan more than the same month last year[8] Asset Allocation Changes - There is a notable shift in resident asset allocation, with household deposits decreasing by 570 billion yuan and non-financial corporate deposits down by 730 billion yuan in October[12] - Non-bank financial institutions saw an increase in deposits by 1.08 trillion yuan, indicating a potential "migration" of deposits due to declining interest rates and improved market expectations[12] Investment Recommendations - The "financial bottom" is emerging, with expectations for looser monetary policy to increase, which may enhance local government economic development capabilities[19] - The capital market's attractiveness for resident deposits is expected to rise, leading to positive changes in asset allocation and social financing data[19] Risk Factors - Geopolitical risks, particularly from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, may increase uncertainty in the market[3] - Potential over-adjustments in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy could impact global economic conditions[3]