Workflow
稀土永磁行业月度跟踪：钕铁硼价格10月小涨，需求端多边际回升，供给维持高位
Xiangcai Securities·2024-11-15 02:30

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the rare earth permanent magnet industry [2] Core Views - The rare earth permanent magnet industry rose 32.77% in October, significantly outperforming the benchmark index (CSI 300) by 35.95 percentage points [2] - Industry valuation (TTM P/E ratio) increased from 51.1x at the beginning of October to 71.62x by month-end, reaching the 95.2th percentile of long-term historical valuation range [2] - Demand-side recovery is evident across multiple sectors, while supply remains high [2] Upstream Market Analysis - Domestic light rare earth ore and imported ionic ore prices declined significantly in October [2] - Praseodymium-neodymium prices rose slightly, with praseodymium metal up 4.79% MoM to 562,400 yuan/ton [2] - Dysprosium products showed modest gains, with dysprosium oxide up 0.05% MoM to 1,774 yuan/kg [2] - Terbium prices fluctuated widely, with terbium oxide up 2.5% MoM to 5,928 yuan/kg [2] NdFeB Market - Sintered NdFeB prices showed slight increases in October [3] - N35 grade sintered NdFeB rose 0.38% MoM to 111.02 yuan/kg [3] - H35 grade sintered NdFeB increased 0.23% MoM to 183.02 yuan/kg [3] Downstream Demand - Export demand showed marginal recovery, with NdFeB exports reaching 5,394 tons in September [4] - Air conditioner production increased 13.17% YoY in September [4] - Elevator production declined 5.7% YoY in September, but the rate of decline narrowed [4] - New energy vehicle production grew 47.99% YoY in October [4] - Wind power installed capacity increased 16.85% YoY in the first nine months of 2024 [4] - Industrial robot production rose 22.8% YoY in September [4] Investment Recommendations - The industry faces challenges from oversupply and intense competition [5] - Price increases are constrained by the balance between supply and demand [5] - The market is supported by reduced imports from Myanmar and rising price expectations [5] - Industry valuation remains high relative to long-term growth expectations [5]