A股熊牛转换下：与92-94年日股和2012-2015年欧股对比

Group 1: Market Comparisons - The current macro policy shift in China is comparable to Japan's in 1992 and Europe's in 2012, both leading to simultaneous bull markets in stocks and bonds[2] - Japan's Nikkei 225 index rose by 50.6% over 462 trading days from August 1992 to June 1994, marking its first bull market after the bubble burst[3] - European stocks saw an 88% increase over 1239 trading days from November 2011 to April 2015, following unconventional monetary policies during the debt crisis[4] Group 2: Policy Shifts - Japan's macro policy shift in 1992 involved significant interest rate cuts and fiscal stimulus, transitioning from a bond bull market and stock bear market to a dual bull market[3] - China's recent policy changes include a comprehensive package of monetary easing and fiscal expansion, aiming to restore market confidence and risk appetite[13] - The anticipated scale of debt resolution in China is expected to be the largest in recent years, with a focus on supporting real estate and stabilizing the banking sector[38] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Japan's GDP growth rate fell from 7-8% before the bubble burst to negative growth in 1993-1994, with significant deflationary pressures emerging[9] - China's GDP growth has also declined, dropping to around 5% after a peak of 8.1% in 2021, with PPI and CPI showing signs of deflation since late 2022[10] - The debt-to-GDP ratio in several European countries was unsustainable, with Italy at 116% and Greece at 130% during the crisis, reflecting similar concerns in China regarding local government debt[22]