家用电器：10月终端继续向好，出货将迎改善
Yong Xing Zheng Quan·2024-11-15 03:04

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [5] Core Viewpoints - The household appliance sector is experiencing a positive trend in terminal demand driven by government policies, particularly the trade-in program for consumer goods, leading to significant year-on-year growth in retail sales for major appliances in October [2] - The sales momentum is expected to continue into November, with strong performance during the Double Eleven shopping festival, indicating robust consumer interest [3] - The positive terminal demand is gradually translating into increased shipments for manufacturers, with significant growth forecasted for production in November and December [4] Summary by Sections Terminal Demand - In October, online retail sales for major appliances saw year-on-year increases: air conditioners (48.1%), refrigerators (51.7%), washing machines (25.2%), and color TVs (54.9%). Offline sales showed even higher growth: air conditioners (113.9%), refrigerators (85.7%), washing machines (78.8%), and color TVs (82.1%) [2] - The average prices for major appliances also improved, with notable increases in online prices for air conditioners (5.7%), refrigerators (14.0%), washing machines (4.0%), and color TVs (12.5%) [2] Production and Shipments - The production forecast for household appliances indicates double-digit growth for air conditioners and refrigerators in November and December, with air conditioner production expected to reach 619.7 million units in November, a year-on-year increase of 18.5% [4] - The washing machine production forecast for November is 420 million units, reflecting an 8.5% year-on-year increase [4] Investment Recommendations - Despite a slowdown in performance in Q3 2024, the effectiveness of the trade-in policy and the positive terminal demand are expected to lead to improved performance in Q4 2024 and 2025. Recommended companies to watch include Haier Smart Home, Midea Group, Robam Appliances, Vatti Corporation, Stone Technology, and Flyco [4]