TKGF(601233) 中银证券·2024-11-15 03:47Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 12.58, maintaining a previous "Buy" rating [1]. Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in revenue and production capacity, particularly in polyester filament yarn, despite facing short-term pressure on profits due to declining sales prices and increased financial costs [2][4]. - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in demand for polyester filament yarn and an improved competitive landscape in the industry, which may enhance profitability in the future [2][5]. - The company's investment in Zhejiang Petrochemical is currently under pressure, but future product diversification and industry recovery are anticipated to improve investment returns [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of RMB 760.49 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.17%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 10.07 billion, up 11.41% [2][4]. - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 278.34 billion, a 12.03% increase year-on-year, but a net profit loss of RMB 0.59 billion, a decrease of 107.34% year-on-year [2][5]. Production and Sales - The company’s sales volume of polyester filament yarn reached 9.4587 million tons in the first three quarters of 2024, a 29.60% increase year-on-year, with significant growth in POY, FDY, and DTY sales [2][3]. - The average selling prices for POY, FDY, and DTY decreased by 2.66%, 2.51%, and 1.78% respectively in Q3 2024 due to fluctuating crude oil prices and weak downstream demand [2][5]. Future Projections - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB 15.36 billion, RMB 26.00 billion, and RMB 38.19 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.64, RMB 1.08, and RMB 1.58 [2][3]. - The expected P/E ratios for the same years are 19.8, 11.7, and 7.9, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [3][6]. Industry Position - The company is positioned to enhance its integrated supply chain capabilities, which is expected to strengthen its competitive advantage in the petrochemical sector [2][4]. - The overall industry outlook remains positive, with expectations of recovery in demand and improved pricing dynamics in the polyester market [2][5].