中美普林格时钟11月资产配置月报：当美国大选遇见美联储降息周期，会发生什么？

Group 1: Interest Rate Cuts and Economic Context - The Federal Reserve's rate cuts have historically been triggered by signals of economic or inflation slowdown, with specific contexts for each cycle: 2001-2003 (dot-com bubble), 2007-2008 (subprime crisis), 2019-2020 (weak domestic and external demand plus pandemic), and 2024 (no significant economic shock) [1] - The timing of U.S. elections does not align with the onset of rate cuts; for instance, the 2000 election occurred before the 2001-2002 rate cuts, while the 2008 election coincided with the end of the subprime crisis rate cuts [1] Group 2: Market Reactions to Elections and Rate Cuts - As U.S. elections approach, market sentiment tends to become cautious, leading to declines in major stock indices; for example, the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq experienced average declines of 6.7%, 9.4%, and 5.2% respectively in October during election years [21] - Following the election results, market sentiment improves, with risk assets rebounding; in November, the dollar index typically declines by an average of 0.6%, while the CRB index rises by 2.2% [21] Group 3: Monetary Policy Independence - Despite political party changes, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains largely independent and focused on economic fundamentals, as evidenced by consistent policy directions during transitions from Clinton to Bush, Bush to Obama, and Trump to Biden [20] - Historical examples show that the Fed's policy decisions are primarily influenced by economic conditions rather than political shifts, maintaining a focus on inflation and employment [20] Group 4: Asset Performance During Rate Cuts - In past rate cut cycles, U.S. equities have shown varied performance; for instance, during the 2001 and 2007 cycles, stocks generally declined, while in 2020, they rose due to preemptive cuts before the pandemic [25] - Gold prices typically increase during rate cut cycles due to lower opportunity costs and heightened inflation expectations; however, they may experience short-term declines post-election as uncertainty diminishes [31]