美国10月CPI数据点评：核心通胀粘性仍在，但无碍年内降息节奏

Inflation Data - The US October CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, matching expectations[2] - Core CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month and remained at 3.3% year-on-year, consistent with forecasts[2] Interest Rate Outlook - The anticipated interest rate cut of 25 basis points in December remains unaffected by inflation trends, with potential for rates to approach 4% if inflation risks decline[2][4] - The US 10-year Treasury yield is expected to remain between 4.6% and 4.85%, with models indicating it will not breach 5%[6] Market Sentiment - The stock market outlook is neutral to slightly positive, with long-term positions unchanged and short-term positions to be considered post-election[7] - The current economic environment suggests a stable inflation level, which supports the ongoing interest rate cut cycle without significant pressure[5] Economic Indicators - Housing prices contributed over 50% to inflation in October, indicating a tight housing market despite slight month-on-month easing[3] - Core inflation's seasonal rebound is viewed positively, reflecting a healthy economic state, particularly as the economy enters the traditional consumption peak in Q3 and Q4[3][5]