2024年10月宏观数据点评：“一揽子增量政策”提振下，10月宏观经济增长动能转强

Economic Overview - In October, the industrial added value increased by 5.3% year-on-year, slightly down from 5.4% in September[1] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.8% year-on-year in October, a significant increase from 3.2% in September[1] - Fixed asset investment accumulated a year-on-year growth of 3.4% from January to October, unchanged from the previous period[1] Industrial Production - The manufacturing added value rose by 5.4% year-on-year in October, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking the second consecutive month of acceleration[3] - The power, gas, and water production and supply sector saw a decline in growth rate from 10.1% to 5.4% due to a drop in electricity generation growth[3] - High-tech manufacturing added value grew by 9.4%, outpacing the overall industrial growth by 4.1 percentage points[5] Consumer Spending - The significant increase in retail sales was driven by policies supporting durable goods, with automotive retail sales up 3.7% and home appliance sales soaring by 39.2% year-on-year[7] - The "Double Eleven" pre-sale event started 10 days earlier than last year, contributing to the retail sales growth in October[7] - Service retail sales from January to October grew by 6.5%, indicating a stronger performance compared to the overall retail sales growth of 3.5%[8] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth remained stable at 3.4% year-on-year for the first ten months, supported by infrastructure and manufacturing investment increases[11] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) grew by 4.3% year-on-year, ending a six-month decline, with a notable increase of 5.8% in October alone[12] - Manufacturing investment saw a year-on-year growth of 10.0% in October, marking a return to double-digit growth for the first time in seven months[14] Future Outlook - GDP growth is projected to reach approximately 5.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, ensuring the annual target of around 5.0% is met[18] - The real estate investment decline is expected to narrow due to accelerated loan disbursements for "white list" projects, with a forecasted annual decline of around -9.0%[16] - Continued implementation of growth-supporting policies is anticipated to enhance consumer confidence and spending in the coming months[9]