Bluetrum(688332) 中泰证券·2024-11-15 06:47Investment Rating - Buy (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's flagship Xunlong 3rd Gen BT895x platform has integrated the Doubao large model, collaborating with professional audio brand FIIL to launch the second AI headset in the market with Doubao model integration [1][2] - The Xunlong 3rd Gen BT895x platform features a multi-core architecture (CPU+DSP+NPU) with high computing power and low power consumption, meeting the demands of AI headset edge computing for voice processing and high-speed audio transmission [2] - The company plans multi-stage collaboration with the Doubao model, currently supporting features like real-time translation, meeting minutes, and real-time dialogue, with more AI functionalities to be introduced for different usage scenarios [2] - AI headphones are expected to drive product value growth, with the company poised for both volume and price increases [2] - The company is a leading player in the domestic smart audio-video SoC industry, with downstream demand gradually recovering and product structure continuously optimizing [3] Financial Performance and Projections Revenue and Profit - Revenue (2022A): 1,080 million RMB, -4% YoY [1] - Revenue (2023A): 1,447 million RMB, +34% YoY [1] - Revenue (2024E): 1,773 million RMB, +23% YoY [1] - Revenue (2025E): 2,197 million RMB, +24% YoY [1] - Revenue (2026E): 2,707 million RMB, +23% YoY [1] - Net profit attributable to parent company (2022A): 141 million RMB, -39% YoY [1] - Net profit attributable to parent company (2023A): 252 million RMB, +79% YoY [1] - Net profit attributable to parent company (2024E): 283 million RMB, +12% YoY [1] - Net profit attributable to parent company (2025E): 380 million RMB, +35% YoY [1] - Net profit attributable to parent company (2026E): 480 million RMB, +26% YoY [1] Key Financial Ratios - EPS (2022A): 1.17 RMB [1] - EPS (2023A): 2.09 RMB [1] - EPS (2024E): 2.35 RMB [1] - EPS (2025E): 3.16 RMB [1] - EPS (2026E): 3.99 RMB [1] - ROE (2022A): 4% [1] - ROE (2023A): 7% [1] - ROE (2024E): 7% [1] - ROE (2025E): 9% [1] - ROE (2026E): 10% [1] - P/E (2022A): 73.6x [1] - P/E (2023A): 41.2x [1] - P/E (2024E): 36.7x [1] - P/E (2025E): 27.2x [1] - P/E (2026E): 21.6x [1] Q3 2024 Performance - Q3 revenue: 457 million RMB, +15.27% YoY, +6.77% QoQ [2] - Q3 net profit attributable to parent company: 72 million RMB, -15.10% YoY, -9.63% QoQ [2] - Q3 gross margin: 24.50%, +1.15 pct QoQ [2] - Q3 net margin: 15.76%, -5.65 pct YoY, -2.87 pct QoQ [2] - Q3 R&D expense ratio: 8.75%, -1.97 pct YoY, +0.76 pct QoQ [2] Market and Industry Analysis - The company's market value as of November 14, 2024: 10,365.50 million RMB [2] - The company's circulating market value as of November 14, 2024: 3,792.88 million RMB [2] - The company's stock price as of November 14, 2024: 86.16 RMB [2] - The company's total shares: 120.31 million [2] - The company's circulating shares: 44.02 million [2] Product and Technology - The Xunlong 3rd Gen BT895x platform is designed for AI headset edge computing, supporting high-speed audio transmission and voice processing [2] - The company's product portfolio includes the Xunlong 2nd Gen+, wearable AB568X, and AB569X series chips, which have gained market and customer recognition [2] - The company's AIoT, smart wearable, and wireless microphone product lines performed well in Q3 2024 [2]