中国石化：公司简评报告：化工产品承压，勘探开发板块展现韧性

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 23,665.41 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 4.19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 442.47 billion yuan, down 16.46% year-on-year [2] - The company continues to achieve stable growth in oil and gas production, with a total production of 386.06 million barrels, a year-on-year increase of 2.6% [2] - The company effectively coordinated its product structure, maintaining growth in refined oil sales despite challenges from declining diesel consumption and increasing electric vehicle penetration [2] - The chemical segment faces pressure, but capital expenditures reached 86.35 billion yuan, reinforcing the company's resource advantages [2] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 597.34 billion yuan, 630.88 billion yuan, and 671.63 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.49, 0.52, and 0.55 yuan [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 7,904.10 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.80%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.54% [2] - The net profit for Q3 2024 was 85.44 billion yuan, down 52.15% year-on-year and down 50.86% quarter-on-quarter [2] Production and Sales - The company’s oil processing volume for the first three quarters of 2024 was 190 million tons, a decrease of 1.6% year-on-year, while refined oil production was 117 million tons, down 0.8% year-on-year [2] - Refined oil sales volume was 18,167 million tons, an increase of 0.6% year-on-year [2] Capital Expenditure and Resource Management - Capital expenditures for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 86.35 billion yuan, with significant investment in exploration and development [2] Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 31,846.10 billion yuan, 33,318.44 billion yuan, and 34,822.86 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profit forecasts of 597.34 billion yuan, 630.88 billion yuan, and 671.63 billion yuan [3]