农林牧渔行业简评报告：生猪价格震荡下行，毛鸡价格先涨后跌

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [3][27] Core Insights - In the pig farming sector, the average price of live pigs in China as of November 8, 2024, is 16.81 yuan/kg, which has decreased by 4.5 yuan/kg from the peak in mid-August. Prices in South China remain relatively stable, while most other regions have fallen below 17 yuan/kg. Supply from large-scale farms is active, but demand is weak, leading to a bearish market outlook for pig prices in the short term. Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Shennong Group, and Juxing Agriculture, which have strong fundamentals and low valuations [3][4]. - For broiler chickens, the average price of broiler chicks is 4.08 yuan/chick, down 0.24% week-on-week, while the average price of broiler meat is 7.76 yuan/kg, up 0.52% week-on-week. The market is experiencing slow sales, and there is pressure on inventory for slaughterhouses. Recommended stocks in this sector include Yisheng, Minhe, Xiantan, Shengnong, and Lihua [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Important Information Updates - The agricultural and fishery sector increased by 6.04% last week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.53 percentage points. The top five performing sectors were aquaculture (18.85%), agricultural processing (7.63%), feed (7.44%), animal health (7.11%), and planting (5.38%) [7][8]. 2. Industry Data Tracking 2.1 Agricultural & Vegetable Price Index - As of November 8, 2024, the agricultural wholesale price index decreased by 0.19% to 124.16, with a monthly decline of 7.11% and a year-on-year increase of 7.71%. Vegetable prices increased by 9.75% year-on-year [9]. 2.2 Pig and Pork Prices & Breeding Sow Inventory - In September 2024, the pig inventory increased by 2.80% month-on-month but decreased by 3.50% year-on-year. The breeding sow inventory increased by 0.60% month-on-month but decreased by 4.20% year-on-year [10]. 2.3 Broiler & Chick Prices - As of November 8, 2024, the price of broiler meat rose to 7.64 yuan/kg, and the price of chicks rose to 4.17 yuan/chick [12]. 2.4 Aquaculture Market - As of November 8, 2024, sea cucumber prices remained at 130 yuan/kg, scallop prices decreased to 8 yuan/kg, and abalone prices remained at 70 yuan/kg [14]. 2.5 Corn and Soybean Market - The global corn consumption is projected to rise to 1,229.48 million tons, with ending stocks decreasing to 304.14 million tons, maintaining a stock-to-use ratio of 25%. For soybeans, consumption is projected to decrease to 402.28 million tons, with ending stocks at 131.74 million tons, maintaining a stock-to-use ratio of 33% [15][16]. 2.6 Feed Market - As of November 8, 2024, the price of pig feed decreased to 3.38 yuan/kg, and the price of broiler feed decreased to 3.45 yuan/kg [17]. 3. Industry Information and Important Company Announcements 3.1 Important Company Announcements - Yisheng reported that in October 2024, it sold 53.14 million broiler chicks, generating revenue of 258.44 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of 2.06% and 48.82%, respectively. The company also sold 6,358 breeding pigs, generating revenue of 15.28 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of 567.86% and 422.54% [19]. - Tangrenshen reported a pig sales volume of 497,400 heads in October 2024, a year-on-year increase of 29.50%, with total sales revenue of 1,008.65 million yuan, up 58.46% year-on-year [20].