公用事业行业月度跟踪：年度电价签订临近，四条逻辑主线交织

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the public utility sector [2]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights four main logical lines for investment opportunities: improved electricity price expectations despite a decline in holdings for thermal power, accelerated capital operations combined with policy expectations for undervalued green energy, the accelerated public utility process for hydropower and nuclear power, and the overall improvement in cash flow and stable profitability in the public utility sector [1][2]. Summary by Sections Electricity Consumption - In the first nine months of 2024, total electricity consumption increased by 7.9% year-on-year, with September showing an 8.5% increase. The secondary industry accounted for 64.0% of total consumption, down 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the tertiary industry and residential consumption maintained a 34.7% share [9][10]. - The growth in electricity consumption for the secondary industry was primarily driven by the public utility sector and high-tech manufacturing, with significant contributions from the electricity, gas, and water supply sectors [15][16]. Installed Capacity - In the first nine months of 2024, China added 242.6 GW of new installed capacity, with wind and solar accounting for approximately 200 GW, while thermal power's share dropped to 44.9% [5][9]. Water Conditions - October saw a decline in water levels, leading to reduced generation capacity in major river basins. The report notes a significant drop in hydropower generation, particularly in the Yangtze River basin [5][9]. Market Pricing - The report indicates a slight decline in market-based electricity prices in October, with the largest drop observed in Guangdong province. The market-based trading volume accounted for 62.0% of total electricity traded, with a significant increase in green electricity trading [5][9]. Energy Prices - Coal prices have shown a downward trend, with the latest price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal at 860 CNY per ton, down 9.1% year-on-year. Natural gas consumption increased by 9.9% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2024 [5][9]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends focusing on companies within the public utility sector, including: - Thermal Power: Anhui Energy, Huadian International, Zhejiang Energy, Huaneng International, and others - Green Energy: Longyuan Power, Funiu Co., and others - Nuclear Power: China General Nuclear Power, China National Nuclear Power - Hydropower: State Power Investment Corporation, Yangtze Power, and others [1][2].