银行业投资观察：两件宏观大事与一件统计小事

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights two significant macro events: Trump's election confirms the future policy direction of the U.S., and the National People's Congress in China has confirmed the trend of fiscal policy expansion. Investors should focus on the misjudgment of Trump's trade policies and the establishment of the domestic fiscal expansion cycle [34][35] - The report suggests that the market has overestimated the short-term impact of Trump's trade policies and underestimated their long-term effects, indicating that the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields are likely at a mid-term peak [35][36] - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the implications of fiscal policy expansion and the need for a long-term investment perspective, moving beyond short-term expectations [36] Summary by Sections Section 1: Current Observations - The banking sector has shown absolute performance without relative performance, with A-shares outperforming H-shares. The banking sector overall increased by 1.4%, lagging behind the Wind All A index which rose by 7.1% [32] Section 2: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the implications of macro events and suggests that the market's view on Trump's election may be overly simplistic. It advises investors to consider the long-term impacts of fiscal policy changes [34][35] Section 3: Sector Performance - The banking sector's performance was mixed, with state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks showing varying degrees of change, with state-owned banks declining by 0.34% while joint-stock banks increased by 2.07% [32] Section 4: Individual Stock Performance - Among A-share banks, Chongqing Bank saw the highest increase at 7.75%, while China Bank had the lowest performance with a 0.27% increase. In H-shares, Zhengzhou Bank led with a 7.07% increase [32] Section 5: Convertible Bond Performance - The average price of bank convertible bonds rose by 0.91%, underperforming the Zhongzheng convertible bond index by 1.25 percentage points [33] Section 6: Profit Forecast Tracking - The report notes that the profit growth forecast for 2024 has shown slight changes for 21 banks, with a decrease in net profit growth and revenue growth expectations compared to the previous period [33]