房地产行业：化债提高政府财政能力，稳定房地产市场

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The scale of debt reduction meets expectations, with the total hidden debt amounting to 14.3 trillion yuan by the end of 2023. The debt reduction plan includes increasing the local government debt limit by 6 trillion yuan to replace existing hidden debts, which will significantly reduce the hidden debt burden from 14.3 trillion yuan to 2.3 trillion yuan by 2028 [2][9][15] - The debt reduction enhances the fiscal capacity of local governments, allowing for increased spending in areas such as stabilizing the real estate market through subsidies and urban redevelopment [2][16] - Real estate companies can benefit from land and property acquisitions, although these may not yield profits due to pricing based on replacement costs rather than historical costs. Healthily operating companies may engage in land swaps to improve their balance sheets [3][19] Summary by Sections Debt Reduction Plan - The plan includes three main components: 1. Increase the local government debt limit by 6 trillion yuan to replace hidden debts, with a total of 10 trillion yuan in resources available for debt reduction [2][9] 2. Annually allocate 800 billion yuan from new local government bonds for five years to replace hidden debts, totaling 4 trillion yuan [9][12] 3. Extend the repayment period for 2 trillion yuan of hidden debts related to shantytown renovations [14][15] Impact on Local Government Fiscal Capacity - The reduction in hidden debt allows local governments to redirect approximately 12 trillion yuan in fiscal capacity towards other expenditures, including stabilizing the real estate market [2][16][17] Benefits for Real Estate Companies - Real estate companies can increase resource turnover through land and property acquisitions, although these transactions may not be profitable due to pricing strategies. Healthily operating firms are more likely to engage in land swaps to enhance operational efficiency [3][19]