银行资负跟踪：震荡中逐步走向宽松

Industry Investment Rating - The industry rating for the banking sector is Buy, maintaining the same rating as the previous assessment [3] Core Views - The banking sector is gradually moving towards a looser monetary environment, with expectations of further monetary policy easing [2] - The central bank's supportive stance is evident, with a high probability of a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut in the next month [4] - Government bond issuance is expected to remain at historically high levels in Q4 2024, with a neutral to positive fiscal impact [4] Central Bank Dynamics and Market Rates - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 1,315.8 billion CNY through open market operations, with 843 billion CNY in reverse repos and 14,001 billion CNY in reverse repo maturities [4][31] - The central bank's monetary policy is expected to further loosen, with a high likelihood of an RRR cut in the next month [4][31] - The weighted average issuance rate for NCDs decreased by 4bp to 1.91%, with yields across all maturities declining [5][34] - Treasury bond yields across all maturities declined, with the 10-year yield dropping by 3.4bp to 2.11% [5][35] Government Bond Financing - Net government bond payments for the current period were 635.53 billion CNY, with an expected increase to 924.96 billion CNY in the next period [4][32] - The government announced an additional 10 trillion CNY in local debt resolution resources, which is expected to support high levels of government bond issuance in Q4 2024 [4][32] Bank Financing Tracking - The total outstanding NCDs reached 17.65 trillion CNY, with a weighted average interest rate of 2.09% and an average remaining maturity of 158 days [36][77] - NCD issuance in the current period was 5,964 billion CNY, with a weighted average issuance rate of 1.91%, down 4bp from the previous period [36][77] - Commercial bank bond issuance totaled 468 billion CNY, with a total outstanding amount of 3.24 trillion CNY [36] - Secondary capital instruments saw no new issuances, but 230 billion CNY in perpetual bonds were issued, bringing the total outstanding to 6.13 trillion CNY [37] Market Rates and Liquidity - DR001, DR007, and DR014 increased by 13.3bp, 6.0bp, and 4.2bp, respectively, indicating tighter liquidity conditions [33] - Shibor rates across all maturities declined, with the 1M rate dropping by 1.9bp to 1.80% [33] - The weighted average issuance rate for NCDs decreased by 4bp to 1.91%, with yields across all maturities declining [34] Treasury and NCD Rates - Treasury bond yields across all maturities declined, with the 10-year yield dropping by 3.4bp to 2.11% [35] - NCD yields for 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y maturities decreased by 1.0bp, 3.0bp, 4.8bp, 4.3bp, and 4.3bp, respectively [34] Commercial Bank Bond Issuance - Commercial bank bond issuance totaled 468 billion CNY, with a total outstanding amount of 3.24 trillion CNY [36] - Secondary capital instruments saw no new issuances, but 230 billion CNY in perpetual bonds were issued, bringing the total outstanding to 6.13 trillion CNY [37]