环保化债策略专题（四）：滚动化债、恢复发展，重视国企改革潜力

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - The introduction of the "6+4" trillion debt conversion policy aims to promote development and restore local government financing capabilities, shifting the focus from risk prevention to a balanced approach of risk prevention and development promotion [1][37] - The environmental sector is expected to benefit significantly from the debt conversion, with receivables exceeding 235.5 billion yuan, representing 18.9% of total assets and approximately 32% of the sector's market value [1][46] - The report emphasizes the importance of state-owned enterprises in the debt conversion process, highlighting their role in financing, mergers, and asset securitization [1][46] Summary by Sections Section 1: Debt Conversion Policy - The recent debt conversion plan emphasizes that the amount is not the core issue; rather, the focus is on rolling debt conversion and restoring development [37] - The plan includes a total of 10 trillion yuan in debt conversion resources, with 6 trillion yuan allocated for local government debt and an additional 4 trillion yuan from special bonds over five years [42] Section 2: Environmental Sector Benefits - The environmental sector is poised for a "Davis Double" effect, benefiting from improved receivables and reduced bad debts, which will enhance financial statements [46] - Key areas such as water management, solid waste, monitoring, sanitation, and recycling are identified as essential urban needs that will likely benefit first from the debt conversion [46] Section 3: Role of State-Owned Enterprises - State-owned enterprises are expected to play a crucial role in the debt conversion process, leveraging their large operational asset bases and historical receivables [1][46] - The report suggests focusing on companies with significant market declines, strong reform demands, and potential for asset injection [1][46] Section 4: Stock Recommendations - Specific companies to watch include Wuhan Holdings, Zhongjin Environment, and Green City Water, which are expected to benefit from the debt conversion policies [1][46] - Other recommended stocks include Juguang Technology, Longkun Environment, and Tianyuan Environmental Protection, which are positioned well in the current market [1][46]