基础化工行业投资策略周报：全球钾肥供应控量，VA/VE、三氯蔗糖提涨

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the basic chemical industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector saw a 5.56% increase from November 4 to November 8, underperforming the Wind A-share index by 1.55 percentage points. Sub-industries such as rubber additives, carbon black, and civil explosives performed well [10][19]. - The transition from supply constraints to supply optimization is highlighted, with upstream energy capital expenditures declining and global oil prices remaining high. Resource industries like titanium and phosphate are facing supply-demand mismatches due to expansion cycles and demand release [10]. - New policies regarding equipment upgrades and energy-saving measures are expected to trigger a new round of supply-side optimization opportunities [10]. - Demand recovery is anticipated, with many chemical products' price differentials returning to historical lows. If demand improves marginally, it could significantly impact product price differentials [11]. Summary by Sections 1. Overall Industry Perspective - The basic chemical sector is experiencing a shift from supply constraints to supply optimization, with significant implications for resource-based industries and new policy developments [10]. 2. Key Sub-Industry Information Tracking - MDI prices are rising due to supply-side constraints, with major manufacturers announcing maintenance plans [12]. - TDI market activity is subdued, with overall demand remaining weak [14]. - Polyester filament prices are declining as demand remains focused on winter fabric production [15]. 3. Data Tracking (1) Industry Trends - The basic chemical sector's performance is lagging behind the broader market, with specific sub-industries showing varied performance [19]. (2) Macro Data - The report includes various macroeconomic indicators relevant to the chemical industry, although specific data points are not detailed in the provided text [19]. (3) Downstream Data - Downstream demand dynamics are influencing the pricing and availability of chemical products, with specific trends noted in various sub-industries [19]. (4) Price and Price Differential Fluctuations - Among 336 tracked products, 93 saw price increases, while 165 remained stable, and 78 experienced declines, indicating a mixed pricing environment [27]. 4. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on supply optimization opportunities in resource sectors and monitoring demand recovery in key products like pesticides and vitamins [11].