A股熊牛转换（下）：与1992-1994年日股和2012-2015年欧股对比

Group 1 - The current macro policy shift in China has similarities with Japan's transition in 1992 and Europe's unconventional debt resolution from 2012 to 2015, both leading to bull markets in stocks and bonds [1][2][3] - Japan's stock market saw a significant recovery from 1992 to 1994, with the Nikkei 225 index rising by 50.6% over 462 trading days, following a major policy shift that included substantial interest rate cuts and fiscal stimulus [3][4] - The European stock market experienced a bull run from 2012 to 2015, with an 88% increase over 1239 trading days, driven by unconventional monetary policies and liquidity support during the debt crisis [4][18] Group 2 - The report highlights the macroeconomic conditions in Japan and China, noting that both faced significant economic downturns after asset bubbles burst, with Japan's stock market dropping by 63.6% and China's A-share market declining by nearly 28% [7][9] - The analysis indicates that both countries experienced prolonged periods of economic adjustment, with Japan's real estate prices falling by 44.76% over 83 months, while China's real estate market has seen a 5.63% decline over 30 months [7][9] - The report draws parallels between the policy responses in Japan and China, emphasizing the importance of coordinated monetary and fiscal measures to stabilize markets and restore investor confidence [10][13] Group 3 - The report outlines the specific policy measures taken in Japan during its recovery phase, including aggressive interest rate cuts and large-scale fiscal stimulus, which collectively aimed to stabilize the financial markets and support economic growth [44] - It also discusses China's recent policy measures, including significant monetary easing and fiscal expansion, aimed at addressing the current economic challenges and supporting the real estate sector [14][38] - The expectation is set for a substantial increase in debt resolution efforts in China, which is anticipated to be the largest in recent years, reflecting a proactive approach to managing economic risks [38]