宏观策略周报：10月M1同比增速触底回升，多项房地产税收优惠政策落地

Key Points - The report highlights a rebound in M1 year-on-year growth in October, alongside the implementation of various tax incentives for the real estate sector [1][2] - The broad money supply (M2) reached 309.71 trillion yuan, growing by 7.5% year-on-year, while M1 decreased by 6.1% to 63.34 trillion yuan [2][10] - The social financing scale at the end of October was 403.45 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.8% [12][13] - The report notes a significant decline in the net increase of social financing, which totaled 27.06 trillion yuan in the first ten months, down by 4.13 trillion yuan compared to the previous year [12][14] - New tax policies announced on November 13 aim to support the real estate market by increasing tax incentives for housing transactions and reducing land value-added tax pre-collection rates [16][17] - The report suggests that the recent policies are expected to stabilize the real estate market and improve financing conditions for real estate companies [14][16] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.6% year-on-year in October, aligning with market expectations, while core CPI also matched expectations at 3.3% [3][18] - The report indicates a growing likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with a probability of 82.3% [3][18] - The domestic securities market showed mixed performance, with major indices experiencing varied fluctuations, particularly a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.5% [22][23] - The report recommends focusing on sectors with strong third-quarter performance, such as non-bank financials and electronics, and highlights investment opportunities in technology, securities, and consumer sectors due to supportive policies [4][26]