证券研究报告/投资策略 机构调研、股东增持与公司回购策略周报（20251208-20251212） 投资要点 ➢ 本周A股上市公司回购情况 2025年12月8日至2025年12月12日，共计50家公司发布回购进展情况公告， 评级机构家数大于10家（含10家）的共13家，预计回购金额上下限均值占预 案日市值比例大于1%的共4家，按拟回购金额上下限均值占最新公告日市值 比例由高至低排序，建议关注纳芯微、美的集团、顺丰控股和招商积余等。 ➢ 2025/01/01-2025/12/12部分上市公司增持情况 2025年1月1日至12月12日，发布重要股东增持进展情况公告的公司共计307 家，评级机构家数大于10家（含10家）的有77家。其中，评级机构大于10家， 拟增持金额上下限均值占最新公告日市值比例大于1%的公司共19家。按拟增 持金额上下限均值占最新公告日市值比例由高至低排序，建议关注万润股份、 仙鹤股份和中炬高新等。 ➢ 2025/01/01-2025/12/12部分上市公司回购情况 2025年1月1日至12月12日，共1830计家公司发布回购进展情况公告，评级 机构家数大于10家（含10家）的共356家公司， ...

Group 1: Institutional Research on Popular Companies - The top twenty companies with the highest number of institutional research visits in the last 30 days include Luxshare Precision, Huichuan Technology, and Jerry Holdings [13][14] - In the last 5 days, the most researched companies include Jerry Holdings, Tianhua New Energy, and Sanxin Technology [15] - Among the top twenty companies in the last 30 days, 15 companies had 10 or more rating agencies involved, indicating strong institutional interest [13] Group 2: Major Shareholder Increase in A-Share Companies - From December 1 to December 5, 2025, five A-share companies announced significant shareholder increases, with Jiangsu Shentong and Hengyi Petrochemical planning increases that exceed 1% of their market value on the announcement date [20][21] - From January 1 to December 5, 2025, a total of 304 companies reported shareholder increases, with 76 having 10 or more rating agencies involved [22][23] Group 3: A-Share Company Buyback Situations - From December 1 to December 5, 2025, 163 companies announced buyback progress, with 46 having 10 or more rating agencies involved [26][27] - The companies with significant buyback plans include Jian Sheng Group, Liangxin Co., and Zhizhong Home, with buyback amounts exceeding 1% of their market value on the announcement date [26][27] - From January 1 to December 5, 2025, 1,822 companies reported buyback progress, with 353 having 10 or more rating agencies involved [28][29]

Investment Strategy Overview - The report indicates that the Federal Reserve's initiation of a rate-cutting cycle supports global liquidity, while domestic monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, creating a favorable liquidity foundation for the A-share market, which is likely to continue a slow bull market [1] - The investment focus can be centered around technology and dividend sectors, with particular attention on domestic chip manufacturing, semiconductor equipment, and humanoid robots in the technology field, and insurance, banking, and other high-dividend sectors in the dividend field [1] Macroeconomic Outlook for 2026 - In 2025, China's economy demonstrated resilience with a GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, driven by the service sector, while industrial price transmission faced challenges [2] - The macroeconomic policy for 2026 is expected to maintain coherence and targeted measures, including more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, focusing on major technology projects and advanced manufacturing upgrades as outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2] 2026 Annual Investment Strategy Technology Sector - The development of new productive forces is a key policy direction for the domestic economy, with technology and innovation companies expected to yield excess returns under a loose liquidity environment. Key areas of focus include artificial intelligence, semiconductor chips, robotics, low-altitude economy, and deep-sea technology [3] Non-Banking Financial Sector - Securities firms are expected to benefit from the slow bull market, while insurance assets will benefit from a rebound in capital returns [4] Metals Sector - Copper prices are anticipated to continue rising due to a tight supply-demand balance, driven by increased electricity demand from AI infrastructure and strong demand from the electric vehicle sector [4] - Energy metals such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel are expected to maintain a favorable outlook due to battery and energy storage demand [4] - Gold is likely to continue its upward trend amid global risk aversion and loose liquidity [4] Power Equipment Sector - AI-driven growth in electricity demand is expected to significantly benefit the power equipment sector, alongside increased demand for energy storage driven by data centers and renewable energy [5] Machinery Sector - Following the U.S. rate cuts, manufacturing activity is expected to recover, with a focus on engineering machinery and heavy trucks [6] Domestic Demand - The focus will be on boosting consumption to expand effective domestic demand, with expectations for the release of consumer spending capacity [7] Dividend Assets - Dividend assets are attractive in a low-interest-rate environment due to their stable high dividends and low valuation, appealing to risk-averse funds [8]

Group 1: Institutional Research on Popular Companies - The top twenty companies with the highest number of institutional research visits in the last 30 days include Luxshare Precision, Huichuan Technology, United Imaging Healthcare, Aibo Medical, and Kaiying Network [11][12] - In the last 5 days, the most researched companies include Jerry Holdings, Fule New Materials, ST Huaton, Kaiying Network, and Jing Sheng Machinery [11][13] - Among the top twenty companies in the last 30 days, 18 companies had 10 or more rating agencies involved, with significant profit growth expected for companies like Jiao Cheng Ultrasound, Nine Company-WD, United Imaging Healthcare, and Lanke Technology in Q1-Q3 of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [11][12][14] Group 2: Shareholder Increase in A-Share Listed Companies - From November 24 to November 28, 2025, six listed companies announced significant shareholder increases, with Wanrun Co., Zhongchumai, and Lega Co. planning to increase their holdings by amounts that exceed 1% of the market value on the announcement date [3][18] - From January 1 to November 28, 2025, a total of 299 companies announced shareholder increases, with 75 of them having 10 or more rating agencies involved. Among these, 18 companies had planned increases that exceeded 1% of their market value [5][20] Group 3: Share Buyback Situations in A-Share Listed Companies - From November 24 to November 28, 2025, 83 companies announced buyback progress, with 23 of them having 10 or more rating agencies involved. Six companies had buyback amounts that exceeded 1% of their market value on the announcement date, including Zhongkong Technology, Aters, Naxinwei, and Petty Co. [4][24] - From January 1 to November 28, 2025, a total of 1,814 companies announced buyback progress, with 349 of them having 10 or more rating agencies involved. Among these, 89 companies had buyback amounts that exceeded 1% of their market value [6][25]

Group 1: Institutional Research on Popular Companies - The top twenty companies with the highest number of institutional research visits in the last 30 days include United Imaging Healthcare, Lens Technology, Aibo Medical, Sanhua Intelligent Control, and Zhaoyi Innovation [2][13] - In the last 5 days, the most popular companies for institutional research include Ninebot Company-WD, Rongbai Technology, Lens Technology, Yintong Intelligent Control, and Yinglian Co., Ltd [2][15] - Among the top twenty companies in the last 30 days, 19 companies had 10 or more rating agencies involved, with significant profit growth expected for Jiao Cheng Ultrasound, Lanke Technology, and United Imaging Healthcare in Q1-Q3 of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [2][13][16] Group 2: Major Shareholder Increase in A-Share Listed Companies - From November 17 to November 21, 2025, five listed companies announced significant shareholder increases, with Changshu Bank increasing its shareholding by more than 1% of total equity, while Huangtai Liquor, Longlide, Fuguang Co., and Feiwo Technology planned to increase their holdings with an average of more than 1% of the market value on the announcement date [3][20] - From January 1 to November 21, 2025, a total of 295 companies announced significant shareholder increases, with 90 of them having 10 or more rating agencies involved. Among these, 23 companies had an average planned increase amount exceeding 1% of the market value on the announcement date, including Xianhe Co., Hubei Yihua, Xinji Energy, and Zhongju Gaoxin [5][22] Group 3: Share Buyback Situation in A-Share Listed Companies - From November 17 to November 21, 2025, 65 companies announced their buyback progress, with 16 companies having 10 or more rating agencies involved. Five companies had an average planned buyback amount exceeding 1% of the market value on the announcement date, with a focus on Jian Sheng Group, Trina Solar, and Prologis Pharmaceuticals [4][25] - From January 1 to November 21, 2025, a total of 1,805 companies announced their buyback progress, with 344 of them having 10 or more rating agencies involved. Among these, 88 companies had a significant buyback ratio, with two companies, Huaming Equipment and Prologis Pharmaceuticals, still in the board proposal stage [6][27]

Group 1: Key Insights - The report highlights the stability of the November Loan Prime Rate (LPR), with the 1-year LPR remaining at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, indicating a lack of immediate pressure for adjustments [18][19]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is intensifying efforts to optimize the structure of listed companies, enhance risk prevention, and strengthen investor protection, aiming for high-quality market development [15][16]. - The report notes that the total investment for five approved flexible power interconnection projects is 24.4 billion yuan, which will significantly enhance inter-provincial power support capabilities [22]. Group 2: Market Overview - Domestic securities markets experienced a downturn, with major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index declining by 3.90% and 5.13% respectively over the past week [24][25]. - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the banking sector showed the smallest decline at -0.89%, while other sectors like media and food and beverage also faced losses [26]. - The report indicates a decrease in global market risk appetite, particularly affecting technology stocks in the US and the domestic new energy sector [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on technology sectors such as artificial intelligence, semiconductor chips, and robotics, which are expected to yield excess returns under current policies promoting new productive forces [33]. - Non-bank financial institutions, particularly brokerages, may benefit from a slow bull market, while the insurance sector could see a recovery in capital returns [34]. - The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset is anticipated to grow amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, with copper supply under pressure and demand increasing [34].

Group 1: Core Insights - The weakening credit of US Treasury bonds highlights the monetary reserve attribute of gold, with the ratio of US debt to GDP rising from 60% in 2008 to 119% in September 2025, leading to increased concerns about the sustainability of US debt and boosting gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1][22][19] - The Federal Reserve's ongoing interest rate cuts are expected to benefit gold prices, as a decrease in risk-free returns lowers the opportunity cost of holding gold, encouraging capital inflow into the gold market [2][26] - The trend of de-dollarization is accelerating, with central banks globally increasing their gold purchases, as the dollar's share in global reserves has decreased from 71% in 1999 to 57% by Q4 2024, indicating a shift towards gold as a reserve asset [3][36][39] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with advanced technology and resource advantages, specifically Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining [4][45] - Zijin Mining is highlighted as a leading gold producer with a strong global presence, reporting a revenue of 254.2 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a 10.3% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 37.86 billion yuan, up 55.5% [45][46] - Shandong Gold has seen a significant increase in revenue, reaching 83.78 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a 25.0% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 3.96 billion yuan, up 91.5% [50][52] - Chifeng Jilong Gold reported a revenue of 8.64 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a 38.9% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.06 billion yuan, up 86.2% [55][56]

Group 1: Institutional Research on Popular Companies - The top twenty companies with the highest number of institutional research visits in the last 30 days include United Imaging Healthcare, Aibo Medical, Sanhua Intelligent Control, Zhaoyi Innovation, and Jinpan Technology [11] - In the last five days, the most popular companies for institutional research include Industrial Fulian, Anbotong, Boying Special Welding, Optoelectronics, and Anke Biology [11] - Among the top twenty companies in the last 30 days, 17 companies had ten or more rating agencies involved, with significant net profit growth expected for companies like Jiao Cheng Ultrasound, Ninebot Company-WD, and United Imaging Healthcare in Q1-Q3 of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [11][12] Group 2: Shareholder Increase in A-Share Listed Companies - From November 10 to November 14, 2025, only one A-share listed company, Su Nong Bank, announced significant shareholder increase progress [16] - From January 1 to November 14, 2025, a total of 290 companies announced shareholder increase progress, with 74 of them having ten or more rating agencies involved [17] Group 3: Share Buyback Situation in A-Share Listed Companies - From November 10 to November 14, 2025, 70 companies announced buyback progress, with 13 having ten or more rating agencies involved [20] - Among these, 18 companies had an average expected buyback amount exceeding 1% of their market value on the announcement date, with a focus on companies like Rongsheng Environmental Protection, Chengde Lulou, and Jiamei Packaging [20] - From January 1 to November 14, 2025, a total of 1,804 companies announced buyback progress, with 342 having ten or more rating agencies involved, and 91 companies had a significant expected buyback amount [22]

Key Points - The coal supply side is significantly contracting due to government policies aimed at reducing overproduction and stabilizing prices, leading to a decrease in coal production capacity utilization from 75.64% in Q4 2023 to 69.3% in Q2 2025 [13][16][20] - Domestic coal prices are expected to stabilize within a "green range" of 570-770 RMB/ton, with spot prices for thermal coal exceeding 800 RMB/ton in major ports [20][21] - Coal imports have decreased significantly, with a total of 34.589 million tons imported from January to September 2025, representing an 11.1% year-on-year decline [21][25] Supply Side Analysis - The implementation of the "anti-involution" policy has effectively reduced the phenomenon of "price for volume" competition, leading to a more sustainable industry development [13][20] - The coal import structure is highly concentrated, with the top four countries (Indonesia, Mongolia, Russia, and Australia) accounting for over 90% of total imports [21][23] - The domestic power sector is prioritizing the procurement of domestic long-term contract coal, further squeezing the demand for imported coal [21][25] Demand Side Analysis - The demand for coal is expected to grow significantly, driven by the electricity sector, with a projected increase of 290 billion kWh in thermal power generation in 2025, a 4.5% year-on-year growth [31] - The overall electricity consumption in China is forecasted to grow by 5.0%-6.0% in 2025, directly boosting coal consumption [31] - The coal chemical industry is emerging as a significant growth point for coal consumption, with a projected increase in coal usage share from 3.9% in 2020 to 6.7%-6.9% by 2025 [34][37] New Energy Impact - The pressure from new energy sources on thermal power is expected to weaken marginally, as the abandonment rates for wind and solar energy have increased, indicating challenges in power consumption [41][47] - Government policies are shifting the focus of the new energy sector from rapid expansion to high-quality development, which may reduce the substitution effect of new energy on thermal power [45][47] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on China Shenhua and China Coal Energy as potential investment opportunities due to their strong market positions and expected benefits from rising coal prices [4][50] - China Shenhua is noted for its comprehensive industry chain and significant resource acquisition plans, while China Coal Energy is recognized for its cost management and resource advantages [50][53]

Investment Strategy Report Summary Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, with October's CPI showing a year-on-year increase for the first time in several months, indicating a potential shift in inflation trends [1][2][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining liquidity in the financial system, with significant increases in social financing and RMB loans, suggesting a supportive environment for economic growth [1][23][26]. News and Commentary - In October, the CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.2% year-on-year, with core CPI increasing by 1.2%, marking the sixth consecutive month of growth [1][11]. - The PPI saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, the first rise this year, while the year-on-year decline narrowed to 2.1%, indicating improving supply-demand dynamics [1][15][16]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) reported a total social financing increase of 30.9 trillion yuan in the first ten months of 2025, which is 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1][26][27]. - Real estate prices in major cities continued to decline, with new residential prices in first-tier cities dropping by 0.3% month-on-month and 0.8% year-on-year [1][31][32]. Market Overview - The domestic securities market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing a slight increase of 0.003%, while other indices like the ChiNext Index fell by 3.01% [2][36]. - Traditional industries are showing signs of recovery, while technology sectors are under pressure, reflecting a shift in market dynamics [2][34]. Investment Recommendations - **Technology Sector**: Companies focused on AI, semiconductor chips, robotics, and deep-sea technology are expected to benefit from the current policy direction aimed at fostering new productive forces [3][45]. - **Non-Banking Financials**: Brokerages may benefit from a slow bull market, while insurance companies could see improved returns on long-term assets [3][45]. - **Precious Metals**: Given the geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, demand for gold as a safe-haven asset is expected to grow [3][45]. - **Energy Storage**: The energy storage sector is projected to have significant growth potential driven by policy support [3][45]. - **Machinery**: With the recovery of manufacturing activities post-overseas interest rate cuts, sectors like construction machinery and heavy trucks are recommended for investment [3][46]. - **Domestic Demand**: There is a focus on boosting consumption to expand effective domestic demand, with expectations for increased consumer spending [3][47].