证券研究报告/投资策略 机构调研、股东增持与公司回购策略周报（20250901-20250905） 投资要点 ➢ 机构调研热门公司梳理 近30天机构调研家数前二十的热门公司有迈瑞医疗、德赛西威、水晶光电、 联影医疗和爱博医疗等。近5天机构调研家数前二十的热门公司有澜起科技、 炬光科技、恺英网络、深南电路和中联重科等。近30天机构调研家数前二十 的热门公司中评级机构家数大于或等于10家的有19家，包含珀莱雅、中宠股 份和迈瑞医疗等。其中澜起科技、德赛西威和中宠股份2025年中报归母净利 润相较2024年实现较大增长。 ➢ 本周A股上市公司重要股东增持情况 2025年9月1日至2025年9月5日，共4家上市公司发布重要股东增持进展情况 公告，分别为九牧王、上海莱士、山西高速和青岛银行，4家上市公司拟增持 金额上下限均值占公告日市值比例均低于1%。 2025年1月1日至9月5日，共计1,726家公司发布回购进展情况公告，评级机 构家数大于10家（含10家）的共410家公司，其中回购比例较大，预计回购 金额上下限均值占预案日市值比例大于1%的有110家，处于董事会预案阶段 的有承德露露、柳工、山推股份、嘉益股份、华明 ...

Key Points - The report indicates that the overall profitability of the A-share market showed a recovery trend in the first half of 2025, with total operating income reaching 34.99 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 0.09%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.99 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 2.59% [9][19][20] - In the second quarter of 2025, the performance continued to improve, with total operating income of 18.10 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 0.38%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.50 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 1.44% [10][20] - The manufacturing PMI for August was reported at 49.4%, indicating a slight recovery in economic activity, with the non-manufacturing PMI at 50.3% and the composite PMI at 50.5% [11][14] Market Overview - The domestic securities market showed a mixed performance, with the ChiNext Index experiencing the highest increase of 2.4%. The power equipment sector had the largest gain among the Shenwan first-level industries, rising by 7.39% [3][35] - The report highlights that the electronic industry saw significant growth, with operating income increasing by 18.5% in the first half of 2025, driven by strong demand from AI cloud applications and a recovery in various downstream sectors [20][31] - The report also notes that the steel and agriculture sectors experienced substantial profit growth, with net profit increases of 179.4% and 163.7% respectively, attributed to falling raw material prices and reduced costs in pig farming [20][31] Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of developing new productive forces, suggesting that companies in artificial intelligence, semiconductor chips, innovative pharmaceuticals, robotics, low-altitude economy, deep-sea technology, and controllable nuclear fusion are likely to yield excess returns [4][43] - It also recommends focusing on boosting consumption to expand domestic effective demand, with particular attention to new consumption, home appliances, and automotive sectors [4][43] - The report advises considering high-dividend assets for stable long-term returns and highlights gold as a long-term investment opportunity due to increasing geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties [4][43]

Key Points Summary Core Insights - The report focuses on the construction of quantitative strategies based on Free Cash Flow (FCF) and its effectiveness in investment strategies [2][3][4]. Free Cash Flow Definition and Characteristics - Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) is defined as the cash generated by a company's core operations after accounting for capital expenditures necessary to maintain or expand its asset base [11]. - The report approximates FCF using operating cash flow minus capital expenditures, highlighting its importance in assessing a company's financial health [11][12]. Effectiveness of Cash Flow Factors - The report conducts an IC analysis and long-short return analysis on Free Cash Flow TTM and Operating Cash Flow TTM from January 2014 to August 2025, revealing that Free Cash Flow TTM has a Rank IC mean of 1.18% and an annualized long-short return of 1.13% with a maximum drawdown of 15.98% [2][18][19]. - In contrast, Operating Cash Flow TTM shows weaker effectiveness with a Rank IC mean of 0.85% and a negative annualized return [18][19]. - The relationship between cash flow factors and returns is not linear, with higher factor values sometimes correlating with lower returns, particularly in certain industries [20][21]. Industry Analysis - The Free Cash Flow TTM factor is ineffective in the real estate sector but performs well in coal, food and beverage, automotive, and media industries [20][21]. - The Operating Cash Flow TTM factor is ineffective in real estate, chemicals, comprehensive finance, and steel industries, while it shows better performance in food and beverage, coal, media, and non-bank financial sectors [20][21]. Strategy Construction - The report outlines a strategy based on Free Cash Flow/Enterprise Value, which yielded an annualized return of 17.06% from June 30, 2014, to September 1, 2025, while the Operating Cash Flow/Market Cap strategy returned 13.23% in the same period [4][41][45]. - The strategy involves filtering stocks based on specific criteria, including excluding certain sectors and ensuring positive cash flow metrics [4][41]. Mainstream Free Cash Flow Index Construction Rules - The report analyzes five major Free Cash Flow indices, noting that their annualized returns range from 10% to 16% since 2014, with specific screening rules to ensure quality and stability in cash flow [37][38][39].

Group 1: Key Insights - The report highlights the implementation of the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative by the State Council, aiming for over 70% application penetration of new intelligent terminals and agents by 2027, and over 90% by 2030, leading to a new stage of intelligent economy and society by 2035 [19][20]. - In the first seven months of 2023, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 40,203.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%, while industrial production revenue showed stable growth, contributing to the gradual recovery of corporate profitability [12][15]. - The report notes a significant increase in the profitability of high-tech manufacturing, with a 18.9% year-on-year growth in July, driven by advancements in aerospace and semiconductor industries [16][17]. Group 2: Market Overview - The domestic securities market showed mixed performance, with the ChiNext Index rising the most at 7.7%. The communication sector led the industry gains with a 12.4% increase [4][26]. - A positive signal in the A-share market is indicated by increased allocations to Chinese assets by overseas hedge funds and public funds, with China being the most net bought market by hedge funds in August [4][5]. - The report emphasizes that the ongoing implementation of growth-stabilizing policies and gradual improvement in corporate earnings are expected to strengthen the fundamentals of the A-share market [4][5]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on new productive forces, particularly in sectors like artificial intelligence, semiconductor chips, innovative pharmaceuticals, robotics, low-altitude economy, deep-sea technology, and controllable nuclear fusion, which are expected to yield excess returns [5][36]. - It also recommends boosting consumption by expanding domestic effective demand, with a focus on new consumption, home appliances, and automotive sectors [5][36]. - The report highlights the potential for stable returns from high-dividend assets and suggests considering gold as a long-term investment opportunity amid rising geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties [5][36].

Group 1 - The industry is transitioning into a new development stage characterized by innovation-driven features, with a blend of various cultural elements such as traditional Chinese culture, anime, sci-fi, and trendy art [1][15][16] - The market for trendy toys is experiencing exponential growth, with the global retail market size increasing from $8.7 billion in 2015 to $19.8 billion in 2019, and projected to reach $44.8 billion by 2024, demonstrating strong resilience through economic cycles [3][25][26] - The Chinese trendy toy market has grown from 6.3 billion yuan in 2015 to 34.5 billion yuan in 2021, with an average annual growth rate of 34%, and is expected to maintain a compound growth rate of 24% from 2022 to 2026, potentially exceeding 110.1 billion yuan by 2026 [3][26][30] Group 2 - The industry is driven by a dual engine of IP licensing and original design, with leading companies building extensive IP matrices through self-owned and licensed IPs, enhancing product offerings across various categories [2][19][20] - The consumer base for trendy toys is expanding, with Z generation (born 1995-2009) representing 38.4% of the market, and a notable increase in adult consumers, particularly women aged 15-25, who account for 65% of plush toy purchases [12][36] - The competitive landscape is becoming increasingly complex, with over 49,000 companies in the trendy toy sector as of 2024, and new registrations growing by 34% year-on-year [41][43] Group 3 - The integration of new technologies such as AR and AI is reshaping product experiences and industry paradigms, enhancing interactivity and personalization in trendy toys [20][21][54] - The rise of domestic cultural IPs is significantly increasing market penetration, with companies like Pop Mart and 52TOYS developing a robust portfolio of original IPs [37][39] - The market is witnessing a diversification of product categories beyond blind boxes and figurines, including assembly blocks, plush toys, and trading cards, catering to a wide range of consumer preferences [2][20][33]

Group 1: Institutional Research and Shareholder Activity - The top twenty companies with the most institutional research in the last 30 days include Dongpeng Beverage, Zhongchong Co., Hikvision, Defu Technology, and Xinyi Technology[5] - In the last five days, the most researched companies include Nanwei Medical, Anjisi, Jinchengzi, Xinqianglian, and Baiya Co.[5] - Among the top twenty companies with institutional research in the last 30 days, 12 companies had 10 or more rating agencies, including Dongpeng Beverage, Zhongchong Co., and Hikvision[5] Group 2: Shareholder Buybacks - From August 11 to August 15, 2025, 51 companies announced buyback progress, with 10 having 10 or more rating agencies, and only 2 companies (Baolong Technology and Fuanna) had buyback amounts exceeding 1% of their market value[25] - From January 1 to August 15, 2025, 1,662 companies announced buyback progress, with 364 having 10 or more rating agencies, and 99 companies had buyback amounts exceeding 1% of their market value[27] Group 3: Shareholder Increase Activity - From August 11 to August 15, 2025, only 5 companies with significant shareholder increases had amounts below 1% of their market value[19] - From January 1 to August 15, 2025, 251 companies announced significant shareholder increases, with 67 having 10 or more rating agencies, and 19 companies had amounts exceeding 1% of their market value[21]

Group 1: Institutional Research on Popular Companies - The top twenty companies with the highest number of institutional research visits in the past 30 days include Dongpeng Beverage, Zhongchong Co., Hikvision, Defu Technology, and Xinyi Technology [10][11] - In the last five days, the most popular companies for institutional research include Nanwei Medical, Anjisi, Jinchengzi, New Strong Union, and Baiya Co. [10][11] - Among the top twenty companies in the past 30 days, twelve companies had ten or more rating agencies, including Dongpeng Beverage, Zhongchong Co., Ninebot, Baiya Co., Hikvision, Jereh, Xinyi Technology, Hongfa Technology, Nanwei Medical, Baijia Shenzhou, Huaming Equipment, and Shijia Photon [10][11] - Companies such as Xinyi Technology, Dongpeng Beverage, Zhongchong Co., and Ninebot are expected to see significant growth in net profit attributable to shareholders in 2024 compared to 2023 [10][11] Group 2: Shareholder Increase and Buyback Situations - From August 11 to August 15, 2025, five companies announced significant shareholder increases, but the average proposed increase amount was less than 1% of the market value on the announcement date [14] - From January 1 to August 15, 2025, a total of 251 companies announced shareholder increases, with 67 having ten or more rating agencies. Among these, 19 companies had an average proposed increase amount exceeding 1% of the latest market value, including Xinjie Energy, Tunnel Co., Sailun Tire, and Wanrun Co. [15] - During the same period, 1,662 companies announced buyback progress, with 364 having ten or more rating agencies. Among these, 99 companies had a proposed buyback amount exceeding 1% of the market value [19] Group 3: Buyback Progress - From August 11 to August 15, 2025, 51 companies announced buyback progress, with 10 having ten or more rating agencies. Only two companies, Baolong Technology and Fuanna, had a proposed buyback amount exceeding 1% of the market value [18] - From January 1 to August 15, 2025, 99 companies were in the board proposal stage for buybacks, including Liu Gong, Sanor Biotech, Shantui, Haixing Electric, Jiayi Co., and Gaoneng Environment [19] Group 4: Institutional Fund Flow - During the week of August 11 to August 15, 2025, sectors such as power equipment, electronics, real estate, non-bank financials, public utilities, computers, home appliances, building materials, light industry manufacturing, and banking received net inflows from institutional funds [24]

Group 1 - The core CPI in July showed a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, reversing a previous decline, while the year-on-year core CPI rose by 0.8%, marking the third consecutive month of growth [2][11][12] - The PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, indicating a narrowing of the month-on-month decline compared to previous months [2][15][16] - The introduction of two consumer loan interest subsidy policies aims to stimulate domestic consumption by targeting both demand and supply sides [3][35][37] Group 2 - The domestic securities market showed a mixed performance, with the ChiNext Index experiencing the highest increase of 8.6% [4][39] - The communication sector led the industry gains with a rise of 7.7%, reflecting strong market interest in technology and innovation [4][41] - The overall GDP growth for the first half of the year was 5.39%, indicating resilience in the domestic economy [4] Group 3 - Investment recommendations focus on new productive forces, emphasizing sectors such as artificial intelligence, innovative pharmaceuticals, and robotics, which are expected to yield excess returns [5][47] - There is a strong emphasis on boosting consumer spending, particularly in new consumption areas, home appliances, and automobiles [5][47] - The report highlights the potential for stable returns from high-dividend assets and suggests a long-term investment opportunity in gold due to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [5][47]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the backtest of the predictive growth factor shows no significant excess returns before 2022, with a notable differentiation occurring in 2022, where the revenue and net profit growth group (0-15%) performed the best since then, attributed to a market style shift towards value investing due to macroeconomic pressures and declining market risk appetite [1][14]. - The report highlights the introduction of the PEG factor to optimize the investment portfolio, which measures the relationship between valuation and growth potential, suggesting that high-growth companies should have a higher PEG valuation level compared to slower-growing companies [2][21]. - The PEG (1-3) factor was found to be most effective in the revenue and net profit growth group (50%+), with the cumulative return for the revenue growth (50%+) PEG (1-3) portfolio reaching 275.45% and the net profit growth (50%+) PEG (1-3) portfolio achieving 296.87% over the period from July 1, 2014, to July 25, 2025 [3][50]. Group 2 - The report discusses the historical performance of growth and value styles in the A-share market, noting a cyclical rotation approximately every four years, with growth style underperforming since 2022 due to economic pressures and liquidity tightening [7]. - The report provides a detailed analysis of the backtest results based on revenue growth, categorizing companies into four groups based on their predicted revenue growth rates, with the 0-15% growth group showing the best performance since 2022 [9][14]. - The report also analyzes net profit growth, indicating that the net profit growth (0-15%) group similarly outperformed in the same period, reflecting a consistent trend across both revenue and net profit growth metrics [15][19]. Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of adjusting PEG valuation levels based on historical context and market conditions, with a recommendation that a PEG below 1.0 is considered a reasonable valuation standard [20][21]. - The backtest results for different revenue growth groups show that the 0-15% revenue growth group performed best with a PEG (0-1) range, achieving a cumulative return of 249.25% [24][27]. - The report concludes that the PEG (1-3) factor is particularly effective for high-growth companies, with significant excess returns observed in both revenue and net profit growth groups exceeding 50% [35][46].

Group 1: Institutional Research on Popular Companies - The top twenty companies with the highest number of institutional research visits in the past 30 days include Northern Rare Earth, Ice Wheel Environment, Weili Transmission, Jiangbolong, and Dazhu Laser [10][11] - In the last five days, the most popular companies for institutional research include Huaming Equipment, Tapa Group, BOE Technology Group, Xizi Clean Energy, and Amway Co., Ltd. [10][12] - Among the top twenty companies in the past 30 days, seven companies had ten or more rating agencies, including Zhongkong Technology, Ningbo Bank, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, BOE Technology Group, Kebo Da, Huaming Equipment, and Northern Rare Earth. Notably, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, BOE Technology Group, and Kebo Da are expected to see significant growth in net profit attributable to shareholders in 2024 compared to 2023 [10][11] Group 2: Shareholder Increase in A-Share Listed Companies - From August 4 to August 8, 2025, two companies announced significant shareholder increases: Huaxi Biological and Daodaquan. Huaxi Biological has more than ten rating agencies, with the average proposed increase amount accounting for approximately 1% of the latest market value [13][14] - From January 1 to August 8, 2025, a total of 246 companies announced shareholder increases, with 65 of them having ten or more rating agencies. Among these, 19 companies had an average proposed increase amount accounting for more than 1% of the latest market value, including New Energy, Tunnel Shares, Sailun Tires, and Wanrun Shares [14][15] Group 3: Share Buyback Situation in A-Share Listed Companies - From August 4 to August 8, 2025, a total of 106 companies announced buyback progress, with 33 of them having ten or more rating agencies. Among these, eight companies had an average expected buyback amount accounting for more than 1% of the market value on the announcement date, including Xiamen Xiangyu, Huafa Shares, Changhong Meiling, Newland, Xinmai Medical, Huaming Equipment, Jinzhai Food, and BOE Technology Group [17][18] - From January 1 to August 8, 2025, a total of 1,654 companies announced buyback progress, with 361 of them having ten or more rating agencies. Among these, 101 companies had a significant buyback ratio, with the expected buyback amount accounting for more than 1% of the market value on the announcement date, including Liugong, Sannuo Biological, Shantui Shares, Haixing Electric, Jiayi Shares, Fuanna, and Gao Neng Environment [18][19]