请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 证券研究报告/投资策略 二十届四中全会胜利召开，审议通过"十五五"规划建议 宏观策略周报 投资要点 ➢ 资讯要闻 1. 中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议，审议通过了《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会 发展第十五个五年规划的建议》。 2. 前三季度国内生产总值101.50万亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长5.2%。分产业看，第一产业增 加值5.81万亿元，同比增长3.8%；第二产业增加值36.40万亿元，增长4.9%；第三产业增加值59.30 万亿元，增长5.4%。分季度看，一季度国内生产总值同比增长5.4%，二季度增长5.2%，三季度增长 4.8%。从环比看，三季度国内生产总值增长1.1%。 3. 10月份LPR保持不变，2025年10月20日贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1年期LPR为3.0%（上次为 3.0%），5年期以上LPR为3.5%（上次为3.5%）。 4. 10月20日，国家统计局数据显示，9月份，一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降0.3%，环比降 幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点，此外，各线城市商品住宅销售价格同比降幅继续呈收窄态势。 ➢ 市场概览 本周国内证券市 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is optimistic [5] Core Insights - The 2025 China International Digital Economy Expo successfully held, focusing on "trusted data empowering industrial development" and promoting the market-oriented allocation of data elements [1][16] - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's digital economy has achieved significant growth, with five out of eight key indicators exceeding expectations [2][11] - Digital finance is being reshaped by technology, with the digital RMB transaction amount reaching 10.8 trillion yuan by April 2025, indicating a mature new payment paradigm [3][14] Summary by Sections 1. Achievements of the "14th Five-Year Plan" in Digital Economy - Digital economy has become a core support for stable growth during the transition period, effectively countering economic slowdown pressures [8][9] - By 2023, the scale of China's digital economy reached 53.9 trillion yuan, accounting for 42.8% of GDP, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the previous year [9][11] - Key indicators such as the core industry value added to GDP ratio (10.4%) and the number of IPv6 active users (834 million) have surpassed targets [13] 2. Technological Empowerment Reshaping Digital Finance Landscape - Digital finance integrates digital technology with financial services, leading to a profound paradigm shift in core financial functions [14] - The digital finance market in China reached 6.86 trillion yuan in 2023, expected to exceed 10 trillion yuan by 2025 and grow to 20 trillion yuan by 2030, with a projected annual growth rate of about 19% [14][15] 3. Investment Recommendations - Focus on the following areas: 1) Computing power infrastructure; 2) Industrial digitalization; 3) Digital finance [4][18] - Key companies in these sectors have been identified with profit forecasts provided [18]

Group 1: Institutional Research on Popular Companies - The top twenty companies with the highest number of institutional research visits in the past 30 days include Rongbai Technology, Jingzhida, Shouchuang Environmental Protection, World, and Jiufeng Energy [12] - In the last five days, the most researched companies were Dike Co., Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical, Aipeng Medical, Juzan Optoelectronics, and LiuGong [13] - Among the top twenty companies in the past 30 days, 11 had ten or more rating agencies, with Huafeng Measurement and Huichuan Technology expected to see significant growth in net profit for the first half of 2025 compared to 2024 [12] Group 2: Major Shareholder Increase in A-Share Companies - From October 13 to October 17, 2025, six A-share companies announced significant shareholder increases, with Luyin Investment and Beichen Industrial planning to increase their holdings by amounts exceeding 1% of the latest market value [17] - From January 1 to October 17, 2025, a total of 285 companies announced shareholder increases, with 81 having ten or more rating agencies, and 20 of these companies planning increases exceeding 1% of their latest market value [19] Group 3: A-Share Company Buyback Situation - From October 13 to October 17, 2025, 72 companies announced buyback progress, with 12 having ten or more rating agencies, and four companies expected to have buyback amounts exceeding 1% of their market value [24] - From January 1 to October 17, 2025, 1,768 companies announced buyback progress, with 383 having ten or more rating agencies, and 89 companies expected to have buyback amounts exceeding 1% of their market value [27]

Investment Highlights - The core CPI increased by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth [3][12][13] - In September, the total import and export volume reached a historical high of 4.04 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8% [3][11] - The total social financing scale reached 437.08 trillion yuan by the end of September, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7% [3][17] Market Overview - The domestic securities market showed poor performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 0.24% [3][27] - The banking sector saw the highest increase among the Shenwan first-level industries, with a growth of 4.89% [3][29] - Market sentiment shifted towards risk aversion, favoring high-dividend assets like banks and defensive assets such as gold [3][4] Investment Recommendations - **Technology**: Focus on companies in artificial intelligence, semiconductor chips, robotics, low-altitude economy, and deep-sea technology due to favorable policies and liquidity [4][34] - **Non-bank Financials**: Brokers may benefit from a slow bull market, while insurance assets could see a rebound in capital returns [4][34] - **Precious Metals**: Gold demand as a safe-haven asset is expected to grow amid geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties [4][34] - **Energy Storage**: Driven by policy support, the development prospects for independent storage are broad [4][34] - **Machinery**: Post-overseas interest rate cuts, manufacturing activities and investments are expected to accelerate, particularly in engineering machinery and heavy trucks [4][34] - **Domestic Demand**: Focus on new consumption to boost effective domestic demand, with potential for consumer spending to be released [4][35]

Key Points - The A-share market experienced a strong opening in the fourth quarter, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 50 points to surpass 3900, marking a new high in over 10 years [1][11] - The Ministry of Commerce announced export controls on certain rare earth items, requiring specific exporters to obtain licenses before exporting to countries outside China, particularly for military end-users [1][12][13] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice to combat price disorder and maintain a fair market environment [1][16][17] Market Overview - The domestic securities market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index gaining 0.37% while other indices like the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index saw declines [2][23] - The non-ferrous metals sector led the gains with a rise of 4.44%, driven by increased international gold prices and strong demand in the AI sector [2][25] - The trading volume surged to over 2.67 trillion yuan on October 9, reflecting heightened market activity post-holiday [11][23] Investment Recommendations - Focus on technology sectors such as artificial intelligence, semiconductor chips, and robotics, which are expected to yield excess returns under current policies [3][30] - Non-bank financials, particularly brokerage firms, may benefit from a slow bull market, while insurance companies could see capital returns improve [3][31] - The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset is anticipated to grow amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, with copper supply under pressure and demand increasing [3][31][21] - The storage sector is expected to thrive due to policy support, while machinery sectors like engineering machinery and heavy trucks may benefit from recovering manufacturing activities [3][32]

Group 1: Institutional Research on Popular Companies - The top twenty companies with the highest number of institutional research visits in the past 30 days include Mindray Medical, Huichuan Technology, United Imaging Healthcare, Shenzhen South Circuit, and Aibo Medical [11][13] - In the last five days, the most popular companies for institutional research include Jepu Tech, Ganli Pharmaceutical, Shiji Information, Guangri Co., and Nenghui Technology [11][12] - Among the top twenty companies in the past 30 days, 12 companies had 10 or more rating agencies involved, with significant profit growth expected for Lankai Technology, Huichuan Technology, and Sanhua Intelligent Control in their 2025 mid-year reports compared to 2024 [11][12] Group 2: Shareholder Increase and Buyback Strategies - From September 22 to September 26, 2025, four listed companies announced significant shareholder increases [18] - A total of 71 companies announced buyback progress during the same period, with 22 of them having 10 or more rating agencies involved [24] - From January 1 to September 26, 2025, 274 companies announced shareholder increases, with 86 of them having 10 or more rating agencies involved [20] Group 3: Buyback Situation - From January 1 to September 26, 2025, 1,747 companies announced buyback progress, with 414 of them having 10 or more rating agencies involved [26] - Among these, 108 companies had a buyback amount that exceeded 1% of their market value on the announcement date [26][27] - Specific companies in the buyback phase include Chengde Lulu, Liugong, Shantui, Huaming Equipment, Jian Sheng Group, Ruoyu Chen, and China Jushi [27]

Group 1: Key Insights - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has remained unchanged for four consecutive months, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, aligning with market expectations [10][22]. - The digital RMB international operation center has officially commenced operations, featuring three major business platforms: cross-border digital payment, blockchain service, and digital asset platforms, aimed at enhancing RMB internationalization and cross-border payment efficiency [22][23]. - The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of mutual respect and cooperation in US-China relations, with a focus on creating more opportunities for foreign investment in China [25][26]. Group 2: Market Overview - The domestic securities market showed mixed performance, with the STAR 50 index experiencing the highest increase of 6.47%. The power equipment sector led the industry gains with a 3.86% rise [2][30]. - The LPR's stability suggests a continuation of a loose monetary policy in the short term, although the necessity for further rate cuts appears limited [2][10]. - The market outlook indicates potential growth in the application of digital RMB in cross-border transactions, which could positively influence market dynamics if US-China trade relations stabilize [2][25]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Development of new productive forces is a key policy direction, with a focus on sectors such as artificial intelligence, semiconductor chips, robotics, low-altitude economy, deep-sea technology, and controllable nuclear fusion, which are expected to yield excess returns [3][40]. - Consumer spending is anticipated to increase, suggesting investment opportunities in new consumption, home appliances, and automotive sectors [3][40]. - In the context of geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainty, long-term demand for gold as a safe-haven asset is expected to grow, alongside tight copper supply, presenting investment opportunities in these commodities [3][40].

Group 1: Institutional Research on Popular Companies - The top twenty companies with the highest number of institutional research visits in the past 30 days include Mindray Medical, Huichuan Technology, Crystal Optoelectronics, Jing Sheng Machinery, and United Imaging Medical [13][15] - In the last five days, the most popular companies for institutional research include Jepu Te, Gan Li Pharmaceutical, Shiji Information, Guangri Co., and Nenghui Technology [13][14] - Among the top twenty companies in the past 30 days, 18 companies had ten or more rating agencies, with significant profit growth expected for Lankai Technology, Desai Xiwei, and Huichuan Technology in their 2025 mid-year reports compared to 2024 [13][16] Group 2: Shareholder Increase in A-Share Listed Companies - From September 15 to September 19, 2025, three listed companies announced significant shareholder increases, including Sierte, Qilu Bank, and Wuzhou Transportation, with Wuzhou Transportation's planned increase amount exceeding 1% of the market value on the announcement date [20][21] - From January 1 to September 19, 2025, a total of 271 companies announced shareholder increases, with 83 of them having ten or more rating agencies. Among these, 22 companies had planned increase amounts exceeding 1% of their market value [22][23] Group 3: Share Buyback Situations in A-Share Listed Companies - From September 15 to September 19, 2025, 69 companies announced buyback progress, with 25 of them having ten or more rating agencies. Five companies, including Jian Sheng Group, Huafa Co., Ninebot Inc., Wens Foodstuff Group, and Jiayi Co., had buyback amounts exceeding 1% of their market value [27][29] - From January 1 to September 19, 2025, a total of 1,739 companies announced buyback progress, with 420 having ten or more rating agencies. Among these, 107 companies had buyback amounts exceeding 1% of their market value [28][30]

Key Points - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year and the first in nine months [2][14] - The Huawei Connect 2025 conference is taking place in Shanghai, focusing on the theme of "Elevating Industry Intelligence" and showcasing Huawei's latest initiatives in AI infrastructure and smart solutions [1][11] - In August, new residential property prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.1% month-on-month and 0.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing compared to the previous month [1][15][16] Market Overview - The domestic securities market showed mixed performance, with the ChiNext Index rising the most by 2.34%. The coal sector had the highest increase among industries at 3.51% [2][20][23] - Huawei announced its AI computing infrastructure plans for the next three years, including the launch of Ascend AI chips and supernode clusters, aiming for breakthroughs in system-level performance [2][18][19] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is seen as a measure to stimulate economic activity amid concerns over employment and potential economic risks [2][14] Investment Recommendations - Focus on new productive forces, particularly in sectors like artificial intelligence, semiconductor chips, robotics, low-altitude economy, deep-sea technology, and controllable nuclear fusion, which are expected to yield excess returns [3][30] - Emphasize consumer spending to expand domestic demand, with potential opportunities in new consumption, home appliances, and automotive sectors [3][30] - Consider high-dividend assets for stable long-term returns [3][30] - Explore long-term investment opportunities in gold as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties [3][30]

Group 1 - The report compares high dividend and high free cash flow strategies, highlighting their performance and optimization [1][11] - From December 31, 2012, to September 17, 2025, the total return of the National Free Cash Flow Total Return Index was 678.74% with an annualized return of 18.07%, while the East Dividend Low Volatility Total Return Index had a total return of 616.51% and an annualized return of 17.28% [2][12] - The free cash flow index excludes financial and real estate sectors, focusing on financial quality with a higher rebalancing frequency, while the dividend low volatility index emphasizes dividend sustainability and stability with a semi-annual rebalancing [3][16] Group 2 - The "Free Cash Flow/Enterprise Value" strategy showed a total return of 832.65% and an annualized return of 21.96% from June 30, 2014, to September 18, 2025, with a maximum weight of 10% per stock [4][28] - The "Dividend Yield" strategy achieved a total return of 971.75% and an annualized return of 23.48% in the same period, with a maximum weight of 20% per stock [4][32] - Selected stocks for the "Free Cash Flow/Enterprise Value" strategy include Foton Motor, China Power, and Satellite Chemical, while the "Dividend Yield" strategy includes Yangtze Power, Ningbo Port, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [4][29][32]