HAOYANG(300833) 广发证券·2024-11-15 09:13Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haoyang Co Ltd (300833 SZ) with a target price of 59 08 RMB per share [1][3] Core Views - Haoyang Co Ltd's Q3 2024 performance fell short of expectations with revenue of 278 million RMB (-8 04% YoY -21 52% QoQ) and net profit of 55 million RMB (-36 50% YoY -45 87% QoQ) [1] - The company's overseas expansion continues with the acquisition and integration of Denmark's SGM and the establishment of a subsidiary in Vietnam [1] - Revenue is expected to grow to 1 329 billion RMB in 2024 1 601 billion RMB in 2025 and 1 935 billion RMB in 2026 [1][2] Financial Performance - Q1-Q3 2024 revenue was 946 million RMB (-6 39% YoY) with net profit of 258 million RMB (-16 80% YoY) [1] - Gross margin remained stable at 51 48% in Q3 2024 while net margin dropped significantly to 20 29% (-9 01pct YoY -8 86pct QoQ) [1] - 2024-2026 EPS is forecasted at 2 95 3 52 and 4 22 RMB per share respectively [1][2] Valuation - The company is valued at 20x PE for 2024 based on its strong export position favorable order book and healthy cash flow [1] - EV/EBITDA is expected to decrease from 15 84 in 2022 to 5 49 in 2026 indicating improving valuation metrics [2][28] Growth Prospects - Revenue growth is projected at 1 9% in 2024 20 4% in 2025 and 20 9% in 2026 [2] - Net profit growth is forecasted at 2 0% in 2024 19 3% in 2025 and 19 7% in 2026 [2] Profitability - ROE is expected to improve from 14 7% in 2024 to 17 9% in 2026 [28] - Gross margin is projected to remain stable around 50% from 2024 to 2026 [28] Balance Sheet - Total assets are forecasted to grow from 2 747 billion RMB in 2024 to 3 250 billion RMB in 2026 [16][26] - Current ratio is expected to improve from 14 76 in 2024 to 12 13 in 2026 indicating strong liquidity [28]