CHINA RES GAS(01193) 东吴证券·2024-11-15 11:17Investment Rating - Buy (First Coverage) [1] Core Views - The company is the largest city gas operator in China, with stable cash flow matching capital expenditures and steadily increasing dividends [1] - The gas sales business benefits from high-quality projects and improved profitability due to market-oriented reforms [1] - The company is rapidly expanding its comprehensive service and comprehensive energy businesses, creating new growth points [1] - The company's city gas projects are of high quality, with price adjustments driving profit recovery, and the dual-comprehensive business growing faster than the industry [1] Business Overview City Gas Operations - The company is the largest city gas operator in China, with 276 city gas projects across 25 provinces as of 2024H1 [1] - Retail gas sales reached 387.80 billion cubic meters in 2023, accounting for 10% of national consumption [1] - The company's retail gas volume grew at a CAGR of 9.8% from 2018 to 2023, with a 5.3% YoY increase in 2024H1 [1] - The company's gas sales gross margin improved to 0.54 yuan/cubic meter in 2024H1, up 0.04 yuan/cubic meter YoY [1] Comprehensive Services - The company has 55.808 million urban residential users as of 2023, with 72.9% located in tier 1-3 cities [1] - Comprehensive service segment profit grew 18.99% YoY to 1.37 billion HKD in 2023, and further increased 22.12% YoY to 760 million HKD in 2024H1 [1] - The company's market share in kitchen appliances and insurance businesses reached 8.6% and 23.0% respectively in 2023 [1] Comprehensive Energy Business - The company focuses on distributed photovoltaic, distributed energy, and transportation energy sectors [1] - Energy sales volume increased 84.9% YoY to 2.94 billion kWh in 2023, with a gross profit of 270 million HKD, up 125% YoY [1] - In 2024H1, energy sales volume grew 54.6% YoY to 1.49 billion kWh, with a gross profit of 160 million HKD, up 84.3% YoY [1] Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue is expected to reach 98.882 billion HKD in 2024, with a YoY decrease of 2.83% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 5.722 billion HKD in 2024, with a YoY increase of 9.5% [1] - EPS is expected to be 2.47 HKD in 2024, with a P/E ratio of 11.5x [1] Valuation and Peer Comparison - The company's net profit is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.1% from 2023 to 2026, faster than its peers [87] - The company's P/E ratio is 12.6x for 2023, 11.5x for 2024, 10.5x for 2025, and 9.7x for 2026, lower than the industry average [87]