经济数据点评（2024.10）暨双循环周报（第82期）：投资为何未如消费出现大幅改善？

Retail Performance - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods improved significantly by 1.6 percentage points to 4.8% year-on-year, marking the second consecutive month of substantial growth[7] - The retail sales of automobiles and home appliances rose by 3.3 and 18.7 percentage points to 3.7% and 39.2% respectively, contributing to a 4.0 percentage point increase in retail sales above designated limits to 6.8%[7] - Furniture retail, which does not benefit from the current subsidies, also saw a year-on-year increase of 7 percentage points to 7.4%[7] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth remained flat at a low level of 3.4% year-on-year in October, showing no significant improvement despite new policy measures[11] - Real estate development investment saw a deeper decline of 3.0 percentage points to -12.3%, indicating cautious expectations from developers regarding demand[11] - Broad infrastructure investment growth slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 9.2%, with significant declines in sectors closely related to government debt, such as energy and transportation[11] Real Estate Market - In October, the year-on-year decline in residential construction area and sales area improved significantly by 10.5 and 9.3 percentage points to -19.7% and -1.3% respectively[17] - However, new construction area saw a deeper decline of 8.1 percentage points to -25.8%, indicating a cautious approach to new projects due to high potential inventory[17] - Recent tax reductions on real estate transactions may help stabilize housing prices, with first-tier cities experiencing a 0.4% increase in second-hand housing prices for the first time in 18 months[17] Manufacturing and Economic Outlook - Industrial value-added growth slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 5.3% year-on-year in October, with mining and manufacturing sectors showing improvements[22] - The forecast for 2025 includes an expansion of the general budget deficit to around 4.2%, with expected consumption subsidies of 400-500 billion yuan to stimulate domestic demand[25] - The overall economic growth target for 2025 is set at approximately 4.5%[25]