BILIBILI(BILI) 东吴证券·2024-11-15 13:21Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - Bilibili achieved its first positive Non-GAAP net profit in 2024Q3, with revenue of RMB 7.306 billion, up 26% YoY and 19% QoQ, surpassing Bloomberg consensus estimates of RMB 7.144 billion [1] - Non-GAAP net profit reached RMB 236 million, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates of RMB 217 million [1] - The company announced a share repurchase plan of up to USD 200 million within the next 24 months [1] Financial Performance - Gross margin increased significantly to 34.9% in 2024Q3, up 9.9pct YoY and 4.9pct QoQ, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of sequential improvement [2] - Sales/management/R&D expense ratios were 16.5%, 6.9%, and 12.4% respectively, showing YoY and QoQ declines [2] - Revenue from gaming business surged to RMB 1.823 billion in 2024Q3, up 84% YoY and 81% QoQ, driven by the success of the SLG game "Three Kingdoms: Strategic Conquest" [3] - Advertising revenue reached RMB 2.094 billion in 2024Q3, up 28% YoY and 3% QoQ, with strong growth in performance advertising [4] - Value-added services revenue was RMB 2.821 billion in 2024Q3, up 9% YoY and 10% QoQ, supported by growth in live streaming and premium membership services [4] Business Outlook - The company's gaming and advertising businesses are expected to continue their upward trajectory, with further potential for high-margin growth [2][4] - The game "Three Kingdoms: Strategic Conquest" is expected to maintain strong performance domestically and explore overseas markets in the coming years [3] - New game releases, such as "Jujutsu Kaisen," are anticipated to contribute to future growth, with a focus on younger demographics [3] - Advertising business is projected to sustain high growth rates, driven by improved commercialization infrastructure and increased advertiser budgets [4] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024-2026 is forecasted at RMB 26.7 billion, RMB 30.2 billion, and RMB 32.6 billion respectively [4] - Non-GAAP net profit for 2024-2026 is expected to be RMB -103 million, RMB 1.935 billion, and RMB 3.027 billion respectively [4] - The 2025-2026 Non-GAAP PE ratios are estimated at 29x and 19x based on the current stock price [4] Market Data - Closing price: USD 18.59 [6] - 52-week low/high: USD 8.80/31.77 [6] - Market capitalization: USD 7.831 billion [6] - Price-to-book ratio: 4.04x [6]