宏观蒋座：形势比人强，特朗普交易的过度预期与不足

Economic Environment - The current economic situation is significantly different from Trump's first term, with a fiscal deficit rate close to 7% compared to 2.37% previously, and entering a rate-cutting cycle rather than a rate-hiking one[1] - Inflation control is the primary focus for Trump, as the economic environment includes high inflation and a rising unemployment rate[5] Market Performance - Recent market trends show strong performance in U.S. stocks, with the S&P 500 up 25.45% year-to-date and a 32.73% increase year-on-year[2] - The Nasdaq index has increased by 28.45% year-to-date, reflecting strong market expectations for tax cuts and re-inflation policies[2] Policy Priorities - Trump's policy priorities include strict immigration control, reducing the fiscal deficit, and managing inflation, with energy policy being a key area for immediate action[8][11] - The proposed tax cuts aim to further reduce corporate tax rates from 21% to 15%[9] Trade and Tariffs - Trump is expected to implement significant tariffs, including a 25% tariff on $500 billion worth of Chinese goods, which could impact trade relations[4][9] - The proposed "Reciprocal Trade Act" aims to set U.S. tariffs at the same level as those imposed by other countries, promoting domestic production[19] Financial Implications - The average fiscal deficit during Trump's first term was around 4%, significantly lower than the current 7% under Biden, indicating a tighter fiscal space for future policies[11] - The anticipated policies may lead to persistent inflation in the short term, affecting the overall economic landscape[19]