钢铁行业跟踪周报：政策不及预期，螺纹开始累库，钢材价格震荡下行

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the steel industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The steel prices have been under pressure due to disappointing policy expectations and weak fundamentals, leading to a decline in prices [1][3]. - The overall inventory levels are healthy, but rebar inventory is beginning to accumulate, indicating weaker performance [1][2]. - The report suggests that as the steel demand enters a seasonal decline, short-term steel prices are likely to remain under pressure, with a focus on companies like Hualing Steel and Baosteel [3]. Price Analysis - As of November 15, rebar HRB400 in Shanghai is priced at 3420 CNY/ton, down 16.0% year-on-year, with a weekly decrease of 110 CNY/ton. Hot-rolled coil Q235B is priced at 3510 CNY/ton, down 12.7% year-on-year, with a weekly decrease of 100 CNY/ton [1][22]. - The prices of iron ore have also declined, with domestic iron ore priced at 765 CNY/wet ton, down 24% year-on-year, and a weekly decrease of 20 CNY/wet ton [31][32]. Supply and Demand - Total production of major steel products has slightly decreased, with rebar production at 2.34 million tons (down 7% year-on-year) and hot-rolled coil production at 2.24 million tons (down 2% year-on-year) [2][56]. - The apparent consumption of steel products has seen a slight reduction, particularly in rebar and wire rod, with year-on-year declines of 9% and 11% respectively [2][68]. Inventory and Profitability - The total inventory of major steel products is at 12.04 million tons, down 10% year-on-year, with a weekly decrease of 150,000 tons [2][62]. - Profitability has declined, with the latest monthly gross margins for major steel products showing negative values, indicating a significant drop in profitability [80].