煤炭行业周报（2024年第44期）：煤价稳中略降，宏观预期向好，期待冬储旺季电煤需求改善

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Views - Recent market dynamics indicate a slight decline in port thermal coal prices, with the CCI5500 thermal coal price index dropping by 2 RMB/ton to 853 RMB/ton. The annual long-term contract price for November at ports is 699 RMB/ton, remaining stable month-on-month. The overall market is weak, with coal prices expected to stabilize and potentially rebound due to upcoming winter storage demand and improved macroeconomic expectations [4][5][6] - The macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing growth have been implemented since late September, leading to improved expectations for the fourth quarter and the medium to long term. The increase in winter storage demand and supply constraints are expected to keep coal prices stable or slightly rising [5][6] Market Dynamics - Thermal coal prices at ports have shown a slight decline, with the CCI5500 thermal coal price index at 853 RMB/ton, down 2 RMB/ton week-on-week. The main production areas have seen stable or slightly rising prices, with some high-calorie coal types experiencing price increases [50][57] - The coal supply-demand balance remains relatively stable in the Shanxi and Inner Mongolia regions, while the overall market is weak due to high inventory levels and low downstream purchasing activity [4][5][6] Industry Outlook - The coal industry index has increased by 2.0%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.5 percentage points. Year-to-date, the coal index has risen by 11.7%, also underperforming the CSI 300 index by 8.0 percentage points [108] - The report highlights key companies with stable earnings and high dividends, such as Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua, as well as companies with low valuations and long-term growth potential like Yanzhou Coal and China Coal Energy [5][6] Key Companies - Notable companies include: - Shaanxi Coal: Buy rating, with a reasonable value of 26.90 RMB/share and an estimated EPS of 2.18 RMB for 2024 [7] - China Shenhua: Buy rating, with a reasonable value of 44.13 RMB/share and an estimated EPS of 2.90 RMB for 2024 [7] - Yanzhou Coal: Buy rating, with a reasonable value of 24.91 RMB/share and an estimated EPS of 2.49 RMB for 2024 [7] - Huayang Co.: Buy rating, with a reasonable value of 10.96 RMB/share and an estimated EPS of 0.86 RMB for 2024 [7]