Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the utility sector [4][21]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of regulating market pricing behavior to ensure a rational distribution of profits across the industry chain. A recent notification from the National Energy Administration aims to correct irrational pricing and arbitrage behaviors, which is expected to lead to a more balanced profit distribution among market participants [2][3][12]. - In October 2024, the generation capacity of major power plants increased by 2.1% year-on-year, with notable declines in hydropower output and a slowdown in thermal power growth. Hydropower generation fell by 14.9% year-on-year, attributed to lower water inflow, while wind power saw a significant increase of 34.0% year-on-year [3][13][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Events and Industry Perspectives - The notification issued on November 11, 2024, aims to standardize pricing in the electricity market, which is expected to enhance the rationality of profit distribution within the industry [3][12]. - The report highlights that the profit of electricity sales companies in Guangdong for the first half of 2024 reached 3.1 billion CNY, accounting for 6.7% of the total profit in the electricity and heat production and supply sector, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.5 percentage points [3][11]. 2. Market Review - The report notes that the utility sector experienced a decline in stock prices, with hydropower down by 1.93%, thermal power down by 3.46%, and wind power down by 3.94% during the week [22][24]. - The report also provides insights into the performance of individual stocks, with ST Lingda showing the highest increase at 8.83% [29]. 3. Industry Data Tracking - The report tracks coal prices, noting a decrease in domestic port coal prices and an increase in imported coal prices. As of November 15, 2024, the price of Shanxi-produced Q5500 coal was 837 CNY per ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.2% [39][43]. - The report also highlights the trends in electricity generation, with hydropower and thermal power experiencing significant changes in output growth rates compared to previous months [13][19]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on high-quality hydropower assets, recommending companies such as Yangtze Power and Sichuan Investment Energy. For thermal power, it recommends selecting companies with advantageous locations and attractive dividends, such as Guodian Power and Shenneng Shares [21][22].
公用事业行业周报：规范市场报价，水电降幅扩大
Guotai Junan Securities·2024-11-17 02:14