永辉超市：调改落地成果斐然，备战春节改革加速

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for Yonghui Supermarket [1][2] Core Views - Yonghui Supermarket reported its Q1-Q3 2024 results with revenue of 54.549 billion yuan, a net loss of 0.78 billion yuan, and a non-recurring net profit loss of 6.62 billion yuan. In Q3 alone, revenue was 16.770 billion yuan, with a net loss of 3.53 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year deterioration in losses but a quarter-on-quarter improvement [2][3] - The company's Q3 performance was pressured by changes in consumer behavior and store adjustments, leading to a 16.40% year-on-year decline in revenue and a gross margin of 19.19%, down 1.69 percentage points year-on-year. The competitive retail environment and ongoing store transformation efforts contributed to the slowdown in overall performance [2][3] - The effectiveness of store adjustments has been significant, with several adjusted stores reopening since August, showing sales increases of 6.6 times, 6.5 times, and 6 times in Xi'an, Fuzhou, and Beijing, respectively. The company plans to open 40-50 adjusted stores before the Spring Festival [2][3] - Yonghui is focusing on its private label brands, launching 23 new SKUs in Q3 2024, including various food and personal care products. The collaboration with Miniso, which acquired a 29.4% stake in the company, is expected to enhance the development of its private label products [2][3] - Profit forecasts for Yonghui Supermarket indicate net losses of 2.87 billion yuan in 2024, with a projected recovery to net profits of 1.07 billion yuan in 2025 and 5.27 billion yuan in 2026. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios for 2025 and 2026 are projected at 436 times and 89 times, respectively [2][3] Financial Summary - For 2023-2026, the projected revenue is 78.642 billion yuan in 2023, decreasing to 69.829 billion yuan in 2024, with a slight recovery to 73.021 billion yuan in 2025 and 75.643 billion yuan in 2026. The year-on-year growth rates are -12.7% for 2023 and -11.2% for 2024, with positive growth expected in 2025 and 2026 [3] - The projected net profit for 2024 is -1.329 billion yuan, improving to -0.287 billion yuan in 2025, and reaching 0.527 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 137.2% and 392.9% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [3] - The gross margin is expected to remain stable around 21.2% in 2024, with a slight decline to 20.8% by 2026 [3]