FSM(002818) 兴业证券·2024-11-17 02:20Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Increase Holding" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4]. Core Insights - The company achieved revenue of 1.079 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 546 million yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, reflecting year-on-year declines of 6.81% and 11.37% respectively. In Q3 alone, revenue was 346 million yuan, with a net profit of 206 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 10.04% [7]. - The significant increase in net profit for Q3 was primarily driven by fair value changes, with a fair value change gain of 44.62 million yuan, up 552.69% year-on-year [7]. - Recent favorable real estate policies have stimulated market recovery, with the company benefiting from increased demand in the Chengdu region. The Tianfu project is expected to contribute to new revenue streams as it progresses in attracting tenants [7]. - The company maintains a strong market position in the Chengdu area, with consistent revenue growth despite challenges in the home furnishing market. The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to 742 million, 798 million, and 897 million yuan respectively [7]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal years 2023 to 2026, the company’s projected revenue is expected to grow from 1.524 billion yuan in 2023 to 1.762 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 2.8%, 0.2%, 5.4%, and 9.5% [5]. - The gross profit margin is projected to decline slightly from 70.2% in 2023 to 69.0% in 2026, while the return on equity (ROE) is expected to stabilize around 13.6% by 2026 [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 1.08 yuan in 2023 to 1.20 yuan in 2026, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 13.9, 12.9, and 11.5 for the years 2024 to 2026 respectively [5][7].