华致酒行：行业压力下毛利率承压，品牌扩张及门店升级持续推进

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's revenue and net profit declined in 2024Q1-Q3, with revenue at 7.832 billion yuan, down 5.10% YoY, and net profit at 168 million yuan, down 27.36% YoY [2] - In 2024Q3, revenue and net profit further decreased to 1.889 billion yuan and 13 million yuan, down 20.84% and 84.17% YoY respectively [2] - The decline in profitability is attributed to the overall downturn in the liquor industry and reduced revenue scale [2] - Gross margin and net margin in 2024Q3 were 8.50% and 0.65%, down 2.05pct and 0.69pct YoY respectively, impacted by rising ex-factory prices and fluctuating wholesale prices of premium liquor [3] - The company has strengthened its strategic partnership with Penfolds, securing exclusive national distribution rights for several of its wine series, which is expected to enhance profitability [4] - The company has expanded its high-end market presence with the launch of 3.0 stores in multiple provinces, supported by a network of over 2,000 stores and 30,000 terminals nationwide [4] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024E is projected at 9.539 billion yuan, down 5.7% YoY, with a recovery expected in 2025E and 2026E to 10.541 billion yuan and 11.727 billion yuan, respectively [6] - Net profit for 2024E is forecasted at 182 million yuan, down 22.5% YoY, with growth expected to resume in 2025E and 2026E at 240 million yuan and 312 million yuan, respectively [6] - Gross margin is expected to improve gradually from 10.0% in 2024E to 11.0% in 2026E [6] - ROE is projected to increase from 4.6% in 2024E to 7.1% in 2026E, reflecting improved profitability [6] Strategic Developments - The company has introduced a new high-end customization model under its "Lotus" brand, aiming to boost profitability through premium offerings [4] - The company's 3.0 stores have been well-received by franchisees, indicating strong market confidence in its expansion strategy [4]