ATCDI(603357) 国泰君安·2024-11-17 02:21Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight rating for the company, with a target price of 12.46 RMB, corresponding to a 2024 PE ratio of 15.2x [4][7] Core Views - The company's low-altitude economy business is expected to benefit from policy support in areas such as industrial subsidies, funding, and airspace opening, which will drive sustained growth in this sector [3] - The company is actively promoting digital transformation, with breakthroughs in areas such as smart parks, LiDAR technology, and digital planning consulting [4] - The company's low-altitude economy projects are progressing steadily, and its digital business continues to empower its operations [7] Financial Summary - Revenue: Expected to grow from 3,388 million RMB in 2023 to 4,353 million RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of 8.7% [2] - Net Profit (Attributable to Parent Company): Projected to increase from 488 million RMB in 2023 to 565 million RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of 5.0% [2] - EPS: Forecasted to rise from 0.87 RMB in 2023 to 1.01 RMB in 2026 [2] - ROE: Expected to remain stable at around 12.2%-12.4% from 2024 to 2026 [2] Low-Altitude Economy Business - The company is engaged in low-altitude planning, design, and platform construction, with significant progress in key projects [4] - It has collaborated with local governments and aviation authorities to conduct research on low-altitude economy planning and operations [4] - The low-altitude economy is considered a representative of new productive forces, with nearly 30 provinces including it in their government work reports or policies [4] Digital Transformation - The company is advancing the construction of a digital design institute, enhancing its digital application capabilities [4] - It has made breakthroughs in intelligent parks, LiDAR technology, digital planning consulting, and smart toll systems [4] Financial Performance (2024 Q1-Q3) - Revenue: 2.294 billion RMB, up 12.67% YoY [4] - Net Profit (Attributable to Parent Company): 315 million RMB, down 16.07% YoY [4] - Operating Cash Flow: -496 million RMB, compared to -347 million RMB in the same period last year [4] - Accounts Receivable: 1.388 billion RMB, up 19.94% YoY, accounting for 60.51% of revenue [4] Valuation and Peer Comparison - The company's 2024E PE ratio is 12.0x, lower than the industry average of 14.4x [19] - Compared to peers, the company's valuation is considered reasonable, with a 2024E EPS of 0.82 RMB and a net profit growth rate of -6% [19] Historical Performance - The company's historical PE ratio has ranged from 8.1x to 14.6x, with the current PE ratio of 10.7x (2024E) near the lower end of the range [18] - The company's ROE has been stable, averaging around 14.1%-15.0% from 2020 to 2023 [18]