钴锂金属周报：情绪引领波动，旺季预期延续

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the lithium and cobalt industry [3][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that lithium prices experienced a rapid increase followed by a decline, driven by market sentiment and seasonal demand expectations. The overall supply-demand dynamics for lithium have not fundamentally changed, and there are risks of price pressure if demand weakens [4][16]. - The cobalt sector is entering a seasonal downturn, with prices remaining weak. Companies in the cobalt industry are extending their operations into downstream manufacturing, creating a cost advantage and enhancing competitive barriers [5][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Cycle Assessment - The lithium sector is characterized by cautious purchasing behavior from downstream buyers, with only limited transactions occurring. The weekly price for lithium carbonate contracts increased by 1.32% to 77,000 CNY/ton and by 2.49% to 78,300 CNY/ton on different exchanges [5][16]. - Lithium concentrate prices rose to 806 USD/ton, reflecting a 35 USD/ton increase, with market inventory tightening [5][16]. - The report anticipates that lithium prices will stabilize at high levels in the short term, with a potential for upward price adjustments if supply does not significantly increase [4][5]. 2. Company and Industry Dynamics - Liontown Resources plans to reduce its production target for SC6 lithium spodumene concentrate from 3 million tons to 2.8 million tons for FY2027, aiming for cost reductions of up to 100 million AUD (approximately 65.83 million USD) [20]. - Vulcan Energy has secured 106 million USD in funding from the German government to support its lithium hydroxide production project [20]. - MinRes announced the suspension of operations at its Ball Hill mine, with a planned reduction in production for FY2025 [20]. - Lake Resources is selling non-core assets in Argentina for 9 million USD to focus on its Kachi project [20]. 3. Key Data: New Energy Material Production, Imports, and Metal Prices - Lithium carbonate production increased by 4% month-on-month and by 48% year-on-year. Meanwhile, lithium hydroxide production decreased by 1% month-on-month but increased by 40% year-on-year [23][25]. - The report notes that the weekly production of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose by 5.39%, while inventory levels decreased by 1.51% [40]. - The average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 4.38% week-on-week, while the price for industrial-grade lithium carbonate rose by 4.44% [45].