房地产：对城中村改造增量政策落地的点评-城改加码，扩容增效

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector, consistent with the previous rating [7]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the Ministry of Finance have jointly issued a policy to promote the renovation of urban villages, which is expected to support physical volume and drive urban development. Local state-owned enterprises are anticipated to become the main force in urban renewal projects [9][10]. - The policy's support scope has expanded from 35 major cities to nearly 300 cities, allowing projects with balanced funding and mature compensation schemes to be included [10]. - The implementation of urban renewal projects is expected to create incremental physical volume to offset the decline in direct real estate investment, as evidenced by the negative growth in land use rights transfer revenue since its peak in 2021 [10]. - Compared to past urban expansion, urban renewal is seen as a more efficient means of promoting urban development, especially in core urban areas where land transfer has become challenging [10]. - The report highlights successful examples of urban renewal, such as the Roppongi project in Tokyo, which transformed an old district into a multifunctional area [10]. Summary by Relevant Sections - Policy Support: The new policy supports the expansion of urban village renovation projects to a broader range of cities, enhancing the potential for urban renewal [10]. - Market Impact: The report anticipates that urban renewal will counterbalance the decline in real estate investment, providing a boost to physical volume in the sector [10]. - Investment Opportunities: Local state-owned enterprises in first-tier cities are expected to lead urban renewal projects, with specific companies like China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and others recommended for investment [10][13].