银行业10月金融数据点评：M1拐头M2继续向上，社融增速底部已现

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the banking sector [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant rebound in M1 and M2 growth rates, indicating improved liquidity in the banking sector. The demand for credit from households has shown a notable recovery, while corporate credit demand remains weak due to improved cash flow [1][2]. - The report anticipates that the financial data from October indicates a bottoming out of social financing growth, with expectations for further recovery driven by fiscal expansion and demand-side reforms [1][2]. Summary by Sections Overall Situation - M1 and M2 growth rates have rebounded significantly, with M1 showing a month-on-month increase of 0.52 trillion CNY and M2 increasing by 0.23 trillion CNY. The overall social financing growth rate is reported at 7.8% for October, down from 8.0% in September [1][19]. Government Sector - The report notes a significant increase in fiscal efforts, with net government bond financing of 1.05 trillion CNY in October, a year-on-year decrease of 0.51 trillion CNY. The report also mentions an increase in fiscal deposits, indicating a stronger fiscal stance [1][19]. Household Sector - There is a comprehensive improvement in household credit demand, with short-term and medium-to-long-term loans increasing by 0.15 trillion CNY and 0.04 trillion CNY respectively in October. This reflects a recovery in short-term credit demand and a favorable environment for medium-to-long-term loans [1][19]. Corporate Sector - Corporate credit demand has decreased primarily due to a significant seasonal increase in fiscal deposits and improved cash flow from capital markets. This has led to a notable improvement in corporate liquidity, which is reflected in the M1 growth turning a corner [1][19]. Non-Bank Sector - The report indicates a significant increase in non-bank deposits, likely driven by a shift in deposits towards securities margin accounts as the capital market improves. This trend is expected to continue as M2 growth outpaces social financing growth [1][19].