有色金属&钢铁行业2025年度投资策略：金价有望走向长牛，基本金属受益中美政策联动

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the non-ferrous metals and steel industry for 2025 [2]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that gold prices are expected to enter a long-term bullish phase due to the de-globalization trend and a declining interest rate cycle, supported by central bank gold purchases [9][20]. - For copper, the supply is anticipated to shift from surplus to shortage, with significant supply constraints expected in 2024 and 2025 [10][39]. - The aluminum sector is projected to experience tightening supply-demand dynamics, leading to a gradual recovery in profits for the electrolytic aluminum segment [10][48]. - The steel industry is expected to see asset value and profit recovery in 2025, driven by macroeconomic policies and structural changes within the industry [10][49]. Summary by Sections Gold - Central bank gold purchases are expected to support long-term demand, with China's gold reserves having room for growth [20][26]. - The declining interest rate cycle is likely to boost investment demand for gold, as evidenced by a significant inflow into gold ETFs [28][33]. - Investment recommendations include companies with clear growth plans in gold production, such as Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold [36][36]. Copper - The report notes a significant contraction in mine supply in 2024, with refined copper production growth slowing down [10][39]. - Supply constraints are expected to persist into 2025, with a projected increase in global copper production of approximately 31,000 tons, 66,000 tons, and 73,000 tons from 2024 to 2026 [10][41]. - Investment suggestions focus on leading companies in the industry, including Zijin Mining and Western Mining [10][39]. Aluminum - The electrolytic aluminum sector is nearing its production capacity ceiling, with limited growth expected in the coming years [10][48]. - Demand from the renewable energy sector is anticipated to remain a key driver for aluminum consumption [10][48]. - Recommended companies include Shenhuo Co., Tianshan Aluminum, and Nanshan Aluminum, with a focus on those with cost advantages [10][48]. Steel - The steel sector is expected to recover in terms of asset value and profitability in 2025, following a period of downturn [10][49]. - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic policies and industry structural changes in driving this recovery [10][49]. - Key companies to watch include Hualing Steel, New Steel, and Baosteel [10][49].