2024年10月宏观数据解读：10月宏观：以进促稳，关注量价从发散到收敛

Economic Overview - In October 2024, the national industrial added value increased by 5.3% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth of 0.41%[3] - The service production index rose by 6.3% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, driven by increased financial activity[39] - The GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter is expected to slightly rebound, with an annual target of around 5% achievable[30] Consumer Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods in October increased by 4.8% year-on-year, up 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, supported by policies encouraging consumption upgrades and holiday effects[43] - The automotive retail sales rose by 3.7% year-on-year, benefiting from the "Golden Week" holiday and consumption upgrade policies[50] - The sales of household appliances and cosmetics surged, with year-on-year growth rates of 39.2% and 40.1% respectively[46] Investment Insights - From January to October 2024, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 3.4%, slightly below market expectations[56] - Manufacturing investment increased by 9.3%, while real estate development investment declined by 10.3%[56] - Equipment and tool purchases maintained a strong upward trend, with a cumulative increase of 16.1% from January to October[57] Employment and Risks - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in October was 5.0%, down from 5.1% in September, indicating stable employment conditions[7] - Key risks include potential escalation of geopolitical conflicts and the possibility of policy implementation falling short of expectations[8]