2024年10月经济数据点评：完成全年经济目标的概率增大

Economic Overview - The probability of achieving the annual economic goals for 2024 has increased, with GDP growth expected to rise to around 5% in Q4 2024[2] - October 2024 industrial production showed stability with a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, slightly down from 5.4% in September[12] - Fixed asset investment in October 2024 grew by 3.4% year-on-year, maintaining the same growth rate as the previous month[16] Investment Insights - Manufacturing investment showed signs of recovery, particularly in textiles and electronic equipment, indicating potential capacity expansion in response to export opportunities[16] - Real estate investment saw a year-on-year decline of 10.1%, with a notable recovery in housing sales, as evidenced by a reduction in the sales area decline from -10.8% to -1.6%[16] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) grew by 4.1% year-on-year, while broader infrastructure investment saw a decline of 7.5%[17] Consumer Trends - Retail sales of consumer goods in October 2024 increased by 4.8% year-on-year, up from 3.2% in September, indicating a significant improvement in consumer spending[22] - The "trade-in" policy has had a notable impact, particularly in the home appliance sector, which contributed 0.9 percentage points to retail sales growth[22] - The upcoming Double Eleven shopping festival has shifted earlier, affecting monthly sales patterns, particularly in cosmetics and daily necessities[22] Risks and Future Outlook - The marginal effectiveness of the "trade-in" policy may decrease in 2025, and the sustainability of the real estate market recovery remains uncertain[29] - Potential tariff threats necessitate continued preparation of domestic demand policies, with close attention to the upcoming December political bureau meeting and central economic work conference[29] - Risks include the possibility of economic recovery not meeting expectations and escalating trade tensions between China and the U.S.[30]