医药行业周报：政策边际改善信号显著，医药行情有望筑底回升

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - Recent positive signals from the National Health Commission and the Medical Insurance Bureau indicate a potential marginal improvement in policies, suggesting a stabilization and gradual recovery in the pharmaceutical sector by 2025 [1][4] - The pharmaceutical index has declined by 9.76% year-to-date, ranking second to last among all sectors, but there are expectations for a rebound in performance as structural high-growth segments and stocks are anticipated [4][60] Summary by Sections 1. Improvement of Medical Insurance Prepayment System - The National Medical Insurance Bureau and the Ministry of Finance have issued a notice to standardize and improve the basic medical insurance fund prepayment system, which is expected to enhance cash flow for industrial enterprises and private hospitals [3][21] - In 2023, 63% of the coordinated areas allocated a total of 88.1 billion yuan in prepayments to designated medical institutions, indicating a shift from a "post-payment" system to a prepayment approach [22] 2. Industry Perspective: Focus on Innovation, International Expansion, and Aging Population - The pharmaceutical index has shown a decline of 3.92% this week, with a year-to-date performance of -9.76%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 25.43% [33] - The report highlights the need for strategic positioning in sectors expected to rebound, such as medical devices and traditional Chinese medicine, while also emphasizing the importance of innovation and international market expansion [4][64] 3. Investment Recommendations - Suggested stocks for investment include: 1. International Expansion: Mindray Medical, United Imaging, and others [4][64] 2. Innovative Pharmaceuticals and Devices: Hengrui Medicine, Hutchison China MediTech, and others [4][64] 3. Domestic Substitution: Focus on companies like KAILI Medical and Aohua Endoscopy [4][64] 4. Aging Population and Out-of-Hospital Consumption: Companies such as Yuyue Medical and Kunming Pharmaceutical [4][64] 5. High Barrier Industries: Recommendations include human pharmaceutical companies and blood products [4][64] 6. Small but High-Quality Stocks: Companies like Baiyang Pharmaceutical and Pumen Technology are highlighted for potential valuation recovery [4][64] 4. Weekly Investment Portfolio - The current investment portfolio includes Baiyang Pharmaceutical, JiuDian Pharmaceutical, Yuyue Medical, and others [5][66] - The November investment portfolio features Hengrui Medicine, Kangnuo Pharmaceutical, and others [5][66]