煤炭开采行业跟踪周报：环渤海港口库存高企煤价承压，亟待需求反弹

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that coal prices did not experience a significant drop during the off-season in September and October, and as the traditional peak season begins in late October, there remains strong upward momentum for coal prices despite previous economic sluggishness [2] - The report highlights that the international standard coal price has risen to 153 USD, which corresponds to approximately 930 CNY per ton for domestic 5500 kcal thermal coal, while current domestic coal prices are around 850 CNY, indicating strong upward momentum [2] - Economic stimulus policies are expected to enhance market expectations for macroeconomic stabilization and recovery, which will benefit total demand recovery and strengthen the logic of tight coal supply, thus sustaining upward momentum for coal prices [2] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - From November 11 to November 15, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3330.73 points, down 121.57 points or 3.52% from the previous week. The coal sector index closed at 2893.24 points, down 103.52 points or 3.45% [25] - The average daily coal input to the four ports in the Bohai Rim was 1.8876 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.17 million tons or 0.09% from the previous week, while the average daily coal output increased by 0.596 million tons or 3.50% [45] 2. Price Fluctuations of Thermal Coal - As of November 15, the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at Datong South Suburb decreased by 6 CNY per ton to 737 CNY, while the price of 6000 kcal thermal block coal in Yanzhou increased by 10 CNY per ton to 1230 CNY [28] 3. Inventory Levels - The coal inventory at the four ports in the Bohai Rim increased to 28.086 million tons, up 1.227 million tons or 4.57% from the previous week [48] 4. Shipping Costs - The average shipping cost on major domestic routes decreased by 1.11 CNY per ton to 39.13 CNY per ton, a drop of 2.75% [50] 5. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on insurance capital inflows and recommends core elastic stocks in thermal coal, specifically Guanghui Energy and Haohua Energy, which are considered undervalued [54]