钢铁10月数据跟踪：消费复苏明显，化债速度加快

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel industry shows signs of recovery with a notable increase in consumption and accelerated debt reduction [3][4] - October 2024 data indicates a year-on-year increase in crude steel production by 2.9% to 81.88 million tons, with a daily average production of 2.641 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.8% [3] - The report highlights the positive impact of fiscal policies, with significant increases in government spending and bond issuance, which are expected to support steel demand [4][5] Summary by Sections Steel Production and Consumption - In October 2024, pig iron production reached 70.26 million tons, up 1.4% year-on-year, while total steel production was 119.41 million tons, marking a 3.5% increase year-on-year [3] - The apparent consumption of steel in October showed a year-on-year decline of 0.8%, but the decline was narrower compared to the previous month [4] Export and Import Trends - Steel exports in October 2024 surged by 40.8% year-on-year to 11.18 million tons, with cumulative exports from January to October increasing by 23.0% to 91.89 million tons [3] - Conversely, steel imports fell by 19.8% year-on-year in October to 540,000 tons, with a cumulative decline of 10.1% for the year [3] Policy and Economic Environment - The report notes that recent fiscal policies, including a significant increase in government spending and debt issuance, are expected to enhance investment and consumption, thereby supporting the steel industry's recovery [4][5] - The approval of measures to increase local government debt limits is seen as a positive step towards stimulating economic growth and structural adjustments [5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several steel companies for investment, including Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and New Steel, which are considered undervalued and positioned to benefit from the recovery in demand [6] - Specific companies are highlighted for their potential based on various market conditions, including those benefiting from energy and infrastructure projects [6]