有色金属行业周报：美元走强压制金属价格，铜铝材取消出口退税或刺激高值产品出口

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [1]. Core Views - The strong US dollar is suppressing metal prices, while the cancellation of export tax rebates for copper and aluminum may stimulate high-value product exports. The report remains optimistic about gold as an anti-inflation asset and a substitute for dollar assets [3]. - For industrial metals, the report highlights the resilience of copper prices due to macroeconomic expectations and demand, despite the strong dollar pressure. The report also notes that the cancellation of aluminum export tax rebates could create opportunities for high-value product exports [3]. - In the energy metals sector, lithium prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term due to increased production and seasonal demand variations. The report indicates that the supply-demand dynamics for lithium remain challenging [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Data Tracking - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a general decline, with the Shenwan Non-ferrous Metals Index dropping by 5.7% this week. Energy metals fell by 1.4%, while metal new materials saw an 8.0% decline [23][24]. 2. Precious Metals - Gold prices are under pressure due to a stronger dollar, with COMEX gold at $2,567 per ounce, down 4.6% weekly. Silver prices also fell, with COMEX silver at $30.31 per ounce, down 3.5% weekly [32]. 3. Industrial Metals - Copper: The report notes a global copper inventory of 589,000 tons, down 25,200 tons from the previous week. The strong dollar is pressuring copper prices, but domestic economic policies are expected to support demand [3]. - Aluminum: The cancellation of export tax rebates is anticipated to increase export costs for aluminum products, potentially reducing export volumes in the short term but may lead to a shift towards high-value products in the long term [3]. 4. Energy Metals - Lithium: Prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate are at 80,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a 5.3% increase. The report expects short-term price fluctuations due to increased production and seasonal demand [3]. - Silicon Metal: The report indicates that silicon prices are under pressure due to high electricity costs during the dry season, with average costs at 12,321.53 yuan per ton [3]. 5. Company Announcements - The report tracks significant company announcements, including a cash acquisition by Shengda Resources for a 33% stake in Jinshan Mining, increasing its ownership to 100% [42].