Deye(605117) 中泰证券·2024-11-17 07:23Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for the company [2] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance showed significant improvement, with revenue reaching 8.016 billion yuan, up 26.7% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 2.24 billion yuan, up 42.8% YoY [2] - The company's gross margin in Q3 2024 was 44.5%, up 3.7 percentage points YoY and 6.8 percentage points QoQ [2] - The strong performance was driven by increased shipments of energy storage inverters and battery packs, which contributed to both volume and profit growth [3] - The company is expanding into emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, and is developing new products like balcony micro-storage and commercial storage systems, which are expected to drive future growth [3] Financial Performance Summary Revenue and Profit - 2024 Q3 revenue: 3.268 billion yuan, up 128.2% YoY and 14.1% QoQ [2] - 2024 Q3 net profit attributable to shareholders: 1.004 billion yuan, up 229.5% YoY and 25.1% QoQ [2] - 2024-2026 revenue forecast: 10.877 billion yuan, 14.337 billion yuan, and 17.149 billion yuan, with YoY growth rates of 45%, 32%, and 20% respectively [2] - 2024-2026 net profit attributable to shareholders forecast: 2.93 billion yuan, 3.892 billion yuan, and 4.696 billion yuan, with YoY growth rates of 64%, 33%, and 21% respectively [2] Key Financial Ratios - 2024-2026 EPS forecast: 4.54 yuan, 6.03 yuan, and 7.28 yuan [2] - 2024-2026 P/E ratios: 20.8x, 15.7x, and 13.0x [2] - 2024-2026 P/B ratios: 8.5x, 5.9x, and 4.3x [2] - 2024-2026 ROE: 41%, 38%, and 33% [2] Operational Highlights - Energy storage inverter shipments in Q3 2024: 190,000 units, up 45% QoQ [3] - Energy storage battery pack revenue in Q3 2024: 770 million yuan, up 62% QoQ [3] - Grid-tied inverter shipments in Q3 2024: 70,000 string inverters and 97,000 microinverters, down 62% and 38% QoQ respectively due to seasonal factors [3] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - 2024-2026 total assets forecast: 13.675 billion yuan, 17.623 billion yuan, and 22.222 billion yuan [9] - 2024-2026 operating cash flow forecast: 2.587 billion yuan, 3.543 billion yuan, and 4.377 billion yuan [9] - 2024-2026 debt-to-equity ratio: 48.2%, 33.2%, and 24.0% [9]