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医药生物行业2024三季报总结之CRO、CDMO：订单逐步改善，曙光有望将至，积极把握底部机会
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2024-11-17 08:46

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The CRO and CDMO sectors are showing signs of recovery, with improving order volumes and a favorable investment environment expected in the near future [9][10] - The report highlights a gradual improvement in revenue and profitability metrics, indicating a potential turning point for the industry [23][25] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - For the first three quarters of 2024, the CRO and CDMO sectors experienced a revenue decline of 7.9%, totaling 645 billion [23] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 109 billion, reflecting a decrease of 33.8% [25] - In Q3 2024, revenue showed a slight improvement, with a decrease of only 2.2% compared to the previous quarter, amounting to approximately 219.1 billion [29] Key Indicators - The demand side is improving due to a recovery in global investment and financing, with significant order increases reported by companies like WuXi AppTec (+35.2%) and Kanglong Chemical (+18%) [10] - The supply side is expected to gradually clear, with fixed asset growth slowing to 7.4% and construction projects decreasing by 6.7% [10] - The overall gross margin for the sector is around 38.6%, with net and adjusted net profit margins at approximately 16.9% and 15.8%, respectively [10] Valuation - The average PE ratio for core companies in the sector is approximately 24.6X, representing a 65.6% discount compared to the average PE over the past five years [10][20] - The report suggests that the current valuation levels are at historical lows, providing a potential opportunity for investment [10][20] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on CDMO companies that are expected to benefit from increased demand for specific products, such as peptides and oligonucleotides [10] - For CRO companies, there is an expectation of recovery driven by improved overseas financing conditions and domestic policy support [10]