10月经济数据点评：“弱现实”向“强预期”收敛？

Economic Indicators - In October, retail sales and fixed asset investment grew by 5.3% and 4.8% year-on-year, respectively[2] - The manufacturing sector maintained a high growth rate, with industrial production increasing by 5.3% year-on-year, while service sector output accelerated to a 6.3% growth[2] - Real estate investment decreased by 12.3% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector[2] Consumption Trends - October retail sales reached a year-high growth of 5.0%, driven by strong performance in home appliances and automobiles, which saw year-on-year increases of 39.2% and 26.7%, respectively[2] - The dining sector showed modest growth, with restaurant income rising by only 3.2% year-on-year, suggesting that domestic demand has not significantly improved[2] Policy and Market Outlook - The report indicates a divergence in stock and bond pricing, with the stock market remaining in a "strong expectation" phase while the bond market is returning to a more realistic assessment of fundamentals[5] - Future economic recovery is contingent on the effectiveness of policy measures, particularly in addressing debt and stimulating consumption[5] - The upcoming fiscal policies and their impact on the economy will be closely monitored, especially regarding the implementation of the 10 trillion yuan debt resolution plan[5]