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煤炭行业定期报告：供暖范围扩大叠加寒潮，动力煤价有望反弹
Huafu Securities·2024-11-17 08:59

Investment Rating - The coal industry maintains a "Strong Buy" rating, outperforming the market [3]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the price of thermal coal is expected to rebound due to expanded heating coverage and the potential arrival of cold waves, with the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price at 837 RMB/ton as of November 15, 2024, reflecting a weekly decline of 10 RMB/ton [2]. - The report emphasizes that coal remains in a "golden era" due to energy transformation demands, with supply tightness driven by strict capacity controls and increasing extraction difficulties [2]. - The report suggests that coal companies are likely to maintain strong profitability, with cash flow advantages following balance sheet optimization [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The coal index fell by 3.45% this week, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which decreased by 3.29% [14]. - The coal sector's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is 12.4, ranking it among the lowest in the A-share market [14]. 2. Thermal Coal 2.1 Key Indicators Overview - As of November 15, 2024, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 837 RMB/ton, down 10 RMB/ton week-on-week [30]. - The operating rate of coal mines in the Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia regions is 84.2%, up 0.7 percentage points week-on-week [48]. 2.2 Annual Long-term Contract Prices - The long-term contract price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) is 699 RMB/ton, unchanged month-on-month [26]. 2.3 Spot Prices - The domestic coal price for Shanxi weakly sticky coal (5500K) is 707 RMB/ton, down 5 RMB/ton week-on-week [30]. - The price for Inner Mongolia's large block premium coal (5500K) is 717 RMB/ton, up 5 RMB/ton week-on-week [30]. 2.4 Supply and Demand - The daily consumption of the six major power plants is 76.4 thousand tons, down 1.6 thousand tons week-on-week [51]. - The inventory of the six major power plants is 1507.8 thousand tons, up 21 thousand tons week-on-week [51]. 3. Coking Coal - The report highlights that coking coal's value is gradually becoming apparent under supportive policies, with a focus on companies with improved production and sales [2].