2024年10月社零数据点评：双十一前置和以旧换新拉动10月社零超预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the wholesale and retail industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - October retail sales exceeded expectations, driven by the early "Double Eleven" shopping promotions and the significant impact of the trade-in policy on consumer spending [4]. - The total retail sales in October showed a year-on-year growth of +4.8% (up from +3.2% in September) and a month-on-month increase of +1.6 percentage points [5]. - The retail sales excluding automobiles grew by +4.9% year-on-year (up from +3.6% in September) and +1.3 percentage points month-on-month [5]. - The retail sales for enterprises above designated size in October increased by +6.2% year-on-year (up from +2.6% in September) and +3.6 percentage points month-on-month [5]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Continue to focus on high-growth and bottom-improving sectors, including: 1. Education and internet platforms with high growth expectations: recommended companies include卓越教育集团, 思考乐教育, 新东方, 途虎-W [5]. 2. Affordable overseas selections: recommended companies include 名创优品, 小商品城, 绿联科技, 安克创新 [5]. 3. Tourism companies with varying performance: recommended companies include 同程旅行, 携程集团-S, 三特索道, 九华旅游, 长白山 [5]. 4. Long-term logic for gold jewelry under the backdrop of the rise of national trends: recommended companies include 老铺黄金, 潮宏基, 老凤祥 [5]. 5. Thematic directions: supermarket adjustments (recommended: 永辉超市), policy expectations (fertility and tourism), and education AI (beneficiary: 豆神教育) [5]. Retail Sales Performance - In October, retail sales of goods showed a year-on-year increase of +4.8% with a month-on-month increase of +1.6 percentage points, while the retail sales of enterprises above designated size increased by +6.8% month-on-month [5]. - The performance of various categories in October was notably influenced by the "Double Eleven" promotions and the trade-in policy, with cosmetics and home appliances showing strong growth [5]. - Online retail sales growth accelerated, with the online retail sales of physical goods reaching 123,632 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +8.8% [5]. Category-Specific Insights - Cosmetics grew by +40.1% year-on-year, while gold and silver jewelry saw a decline of -2.7% year-on-year but improved by +5.1 percentage points month-on-month [5]. - Home appliances experienced a year-on-year growth of +39.2% with a month-on-month increase of +18.7 percentage points [5]. - The online penetration rate for physical goods retail reached 25.9% in October, slightly up by +0.2 percentage points [5].